ALL it took was a few words by John O'Donoghue on RTE's Saturday View to transform abortion into a general election issue. The way for ward, the Fianna Fail spokesman on justice believed, was to have another referendum. It would not be possible to legislate on the issue.
Mr O'Donoghue has opened the first real chink in politicians' armour since the 1992 referendums, when Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats tried and failed to roll back the Supreme Court judgment in the X case, and the antiabortion groups came lorrying through.
Bertie Ahern's response to the idea of a referendum - he didn't know whether he was for or against it - was so muddled that the gap continued to widen. The situation was no clearer following yesterday's meeting of the Fianna Fail front bench.
With its collective eye firmly on the general election ball and the obvious doorstep question, the front bench "reiterated the party's total opposition to abortion". It went on to recognise that the issue was difficult, complex and sensitive and said - after heated discussion - that both legislative and constitutional aspects would have to be considered.
The ink on the press release was hardly dry when reporters were clamouring to know what was meant by "total opposition to abortion". Did that mean that no procedure designed to save the life of a mother could be used? And what about the Supreme Court judgment in the X case and the "real and substantial risk to the life of the mother" through threatened suicide?
Two doctors, Rory O'Hanlon and Jim McDaid, were dispatched to clarify the situation. "Total opposition to abortion" became "unanimous opposition to abortion". But what was abortion? We were into the old morass we wallowed in 1983 and again in 1992: ectopic pregnancies; cancer of the womb; women being treated as objects; no obvious willingness to legislate for the X case decision, and no formal acceptance of the decision by the people in the 1992 referendum.
Some in Fianna Fail were appalled at the prospect of fighting the general election under the shadow of the abortion issue, but other rural TDs welcomed the prospect and the possibility of garnering the votes of that 35 per cent of the electorate which voted solidly against travel and information in the abortion referendums. After all, they were in opposition.
It's a dangerous gamble.
Mr O'Donoghue's personal views on the need for another referendum to outlaw abortion would certainly generate a strong resonance in Kerry South and help the party's vote in an election, but such sentiments - leading to a revived anti-abortion campaign - could prove to be seriously counter-productive in Dublin. The "silent majority" may not relish being confronted with an issue they dealt with as recently as 1992, and the general election will be won or lost in the capital city.
The Fianna Fail parliamentary party will meet today and - on the basis of what happened in 1993, when it dictated policy to Mr Ahern on the abortion travel and information issues - members will be given their heads. The party is unlikely to reach a formal position by election time, so TDs will be able to express their "personal views" on the doorstep. Members of the front bench, by contrast, will be asked to keep their views to themselves.
Last night, the Pro-Life Campaign was preparing for its first major press conference in a new assault on the Constitution. Father Marx, of bottled foetus fame, is due to arrive in Dublin with American supporters at the weekend.
The Government parties are watching developments with growing horror. They have managed - so far - not to be sucked into the maelstrom. Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left are agreed that no commitment to a referendum will be given this side of an election and the two smaller parties ire committed to dealing with the issue by way of legislation.
John Bruton took out insurance against the anti-abortion groups on Monday when he said that no legislation had been promised in the programme for government. It was a disingenuous position. The proagramme made no reference to a referendum, but promised to "continue work on the complex ethical, legal and medical problems raised by the X case".
Mary Harney declared that a referendum was "the last thing the country needed at this time", and her parliamentary party agreed. However, she stopped short of saying that such a pre-election commitment would be an impediment to forming a future government.
A Labour Party backbencher, Eamonn Walsh, put the boot into Fianna Fail. People would have to think twice about voting for such a fundamentalist party, he declared, and any future government involving the Labour Party would not hold an abortion referendum.
Nobody at Leinster House is surprised that abortion has become an issue, but they are amazed by the high profile it has secured. Ever since the Fianna Fail/Labour government pledged to legislate for the X case in 1993, a strong antiabortion campaign has been running at county council level to negative the commitment and to secure a new referendum. Councillors, not directly affected by such motions, have passed them on the nod.
Now the chickens are coming home to roost and Fianna Fail is first in the firing line. The front bench has already left the door open to a new referendum. When the party's advisory group and the all-party Dail Committee on the Constitution report, it has promised to bite on the bullet.