By this time tomorrow, we’ll know who will be playing Croke Park next summer. The announcement due on Friday morning from promoters MCD about next year’s concert at the venue (or maybe the first of a couple of concerts) means that there will be at least one musical act capable of pulling 82,000 people making a beeline for Dublin’s northside.
Judging by the chatter and speculation, the odds-on favourites are now The Script. Earlier today, one group of bookmakers stopped taking bets on the Dublin band headlining Croke Park in 2015. It’s either a case of another stunt from the publicity-shy bookies or people have put two and two together and decided that it has to The Script.
The band’s last major Dublin show saw them draw over 50,000 to the Aviva across the city in 2011. Add in a decent support bill and a lot of radio ads and they could do the business.
In previous years, no one bar the act's fans were unduly concerned over who was playing on Jones Road. But Garth Brooks' attempt for a five-in-a-row last July changed all that and made the silly season even sillier.
Thankfully, it’s unlikely to be the country singer next summer, which is good news for the majority of us (and the Mexican ambassador, who made a cameo in the Brooks’ affair). Bad news, though, for the lad who still has thousands of plastic neon stetsons in his shed and the 400,000 people who’d pay good money to see Brooks.
It takes a special class of act to sell 80,000 tickets so that means your list of would-be Croker-fillers is actually quite short. You can discount most of the current rock acts on the circuit with the exception of, say, Kings of Leon. It would be quite a stretch for a band like Arctic Monkeys or Arcade Fire, both of whom sold out Marlay Park last summer, to move on up to the bigger venue. Hozier? Way, way, way too early for the tall Wicklow man with the world-beating song.
Pop acts have proven to be consistent Croker sellers, with Westlife, Take That and One Direction all filling the venue in recent years. Beyond a return gig for any one of that trio, it’s slim pickings in terms of would-be headliners for 2015 from the pop department. There are very hip-hop or r’n’b acts, with the exception of Eminem, who are likely to feature tomorrow.
Another possibility is a heritage act, though plenty of caveats apply here. Many heritage acts have really done the dog when it comes to playing too many Irish shows in recent years. Look at Neil Diamond, who played Croke Park as recently as 2008 and who's now back at the 3Arena level. Bon Jovi played Croker in 2006, the RDS in 2011 and Slane in 2013 so they might think they're due an outing again.
It's worth noting that some of the acts who could fill Croker at the drop of a hat, such as evergreen Irish favourite Bruce Springsteen, don't work with promoters MCD so you can discount them from the guessing. An act reforming for a tour? You'd fill the place with Oasis for sure.
Given that the act in question are due to appear at tomorrow’s press conference and that they’re currently spending as much time on the media treadmill as Irish Water PR reps, a lot of signs point to U2.
They’ve played Croker before, they’ve a new album out – you do know they’ve an album out, right? – and they’re due to tour. All the talk is of indoor shows for that tour, though economics of scale might dictate the band playing outdoors from the get-go.
We’ll know for sure tomorrow morning, but right now, it would seem that the script says The Script. It would also mean a big day out for one set of Dubs in Croker in 2015.
