Sickly Fianna Fail needs a tonic from McAleese

On Monday morning, the word spread among Ministers: Ray was going to go

On Monday morning, the word spread among Ministers: Ray was going to go. He had defended himself for 14 weeks against allegations concerning £30,000 he received from a developer in 1989. His brother had died the previous Friday. The weekend had seen another front of allegations opening with the publication in The Irish Times of new information concerning the political handling of the passports-for-sale issue. Ray had had enough. On Monday morning, he attended his brother's funeral. On Monday afternoon, he submitted separate letters resigning both his ministerial position and his Dail seat.

Among Ministers and backbenchers there was a mixture of relief and anger, often both at the same time.

The relief was that the intense pressure on the Government was going to ease. The anger arose from the sense that outsiders had inflicted severe damage on the party.

The feeling reflected that in 1990 when newspaper revelations ultimately led to the end of Brian Lenihan's ministerial career and in 1994 when newspaper revelations - in The Irish Times - scuppered Bertie Ahern's chances of becoming Taoiseach at that time.

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In the corridors of Leinster House, a senior minister put a historical perspective on it for anyone who would listen. It was seven years to the month since The Irish Times had politically destroyed Brian Lenihan. Now it had repeated the performance on another minister.

Charlie McCreevy, as he correctly points out, did not use the word conspiracy, but in a speech he delivered on Wednesday night it was clear what the Minister for Finance meant.

There was something unfair about the way The Irish Times had covered the story, he suggested, while there were figures in RTE with long memories now taking revenge for Mr Burke's behaviour in the late 1980s when he stuck the boot into them as Minister for Communications. Jim McDaid condemned a "certain section of the media" as well. The issue, as far as Fianna Fail people were concerned, was who had leaked the passport story to The Irish Times. Having bitterly denounced Fine Gael and the media, Mr Ahern demanded vigorously and sourly that Mr Bruton reveal to him who had leaked the story.

In a turbulent week for the party, not one Fianna Fail figure seems to have referred to the fact that Mr Ray Burke received £30,000 from a developer, that there was a level of public concern about this and that 79 per cent of those surveyed in an opinion poll professed not to believe Mr Burke's explanation.

It should have been so different for Fianna Fail. Last June they seemed to set to preside over Irish entry into the European economic superleague, as well as a possible historic settlement in the north.

They are just over three months in Government, the economy is booming even more than expected, there is a pile of money to give away, the IRA has stopped the killing, the Ulster Unionists have gone into the talks and the opinion polls say everyone is terribly happy with the Government.

And yet the party is mired in squalid, nasty and bitter stuff. A Minister is overboard, there are two threatening by-elections and two unpredictable tribunals approaching fast. There is also a rump smarting at the treatment of Albert Reynolds over the presidential nomination.

The three promotional opportunities created by Mr Burke's departure were all used to try to pacify the party. Others are now disappointed as a result. The Government needs the support of two Independent deputies to be sure of winning a Dail division. If it were to lose the two by-elections it would need three.

There are other destabilising factors about. John Bruton won't stop mentioning the H word. Mr Ahern says that is all in the past and that he has no responsibility for it. Mr Bruton says Mr Ahern shares a sort of collective war guilt, that Mr Ahern and some of his colleagues all protected their boss and did his bidding for years and now his legacy is back to haunt them. The H word will be heard a lot more when the Moriarty tribunal begins its public hearings. The past deeds of Mr Haughey and his governments will fall out when that particular historical tree is shaken.

The potential for trouble from a disaffected group of Reynolds supporters has been talked up this week.

Many of them still blame Mr Ahern and his circle for the humiliation of Mr Reynolds, their former leader discarded in favour of an outsider.

Mr Ahern's supporters dismiss this as the simplistic analysis of conspiracy theorists. Mr Reynolds can not be seen simply as a victim of a leadership plot, they argue, and he brought much of his bad fortune upon himself.

He created the core of the anyone-but-Albert campaign on his first day as Taoiseach when he fired 20 junior and senior ministers. Those numbers were swollen by the 32 new deputies elected to the Dail in June. While possessed of various political outlooks, one imperative unites them: the need to hold their seat for as long as possible.

And so the talk about the party losing a by-election in Longford/ Roscommon should Mr Reynolds be elected caused many of these deputies to flock to the only candidate whose election would not cause a by-election. Blame the deputies, not the leader, is the message from the leader's supporters. But for those who might not accept this message there was some consolation when Mr Ahern announced the three promotions that flowed from Mr Burke's demise.

David Andrews, disappointed at not having the opportunity to seek his party's presidential nomination, had upset the leadership when he announced his support for Mr Reynolds's attempt to win the nomination himself.

Mr Andrews now finds himself in the portfolio he always coveted. Michael Smith and Noel Treacy, staunch supporters of Mr Reynolds, were also rewarded with promotion. If remnants of Mr Reynolds's support group have begun to meet in huddles, they will not be able to count on these two.

The problem is that for every person mollified there are several disappointed. Dublin deputies Eoin Ryan, Brian Lenihan and Ivor Callelly are among those who would have fancied their chances of a junior ministry.

Noel Treacy's constituency colleague, Michael Kitt, may consider the way he was passed over for Mr Treacy as scant reward for loyalty.

The problem with rewarding the disaffected is that it sends out a signal that the way to be rewarded is to appear disaffected.

Sympathy for Ray Burke is unlikely to reflect badly on Mr Ahern in the longer term. At a parliamentary party meeting on Wednesday, Mr Ahern outlined his view of what had happened. He spoke for 15 minutes, saying Mr Burke had no wrongdoing shown against him, that he had been the victim of hounding by Fine Gael and the media. Not one deputy spoke afterwards, even though they were given the chance.

The sympathy for Mr Burke is tempered by annoyance at the instability his resignation from the Dail has caused. Having avoided a by-election by not nominating a sitting deputy for the presidency, the party is faced with one now anyway.

Mr Burke has not commented since his resignation, but his departure from the Dail is not seen as a gesture of displeasure towards the leadership.

Rather it is seen as a decision to make a dignified exit rather than languish on the back benches as a hurt, damaged former minister.

Those who predict a return to stability in Fianna Fail point to a number of upcoming events that could steady the troops for a long Government term. Mary McAleese could provide the party with a major morale boost in three weeks' time. The party around the State is reported to have been galvanised into action to a greater degree than expected around her campaign.

There are more breaks that could fall right for them. Winning one of the by-elections is a reasonable hope. Winning both is possible. Mr Burke's departure means that no sitting member of Government is under any cloud of suspicion as it faces into more tribunals.

And the opinion polls still show the party doing well, apparently immune from the effects of recent scandals. "The TDs know Bertie is the best thing they have going for them," says one supporter.

So long as this remains true he is secure.