EXPECT The English Patient and Evita to lead the Oscar nominations when they are announced in Los Angeles at the crack of dawn next Tuesday morning - 1.30 p.m., Irish time. Both movies look likely to pick up a minimum of eight nominations each, but there are very few certainties at this stage in what are widely regarded as the least predictable Oscars in many years.
Irish interest rests with Neil Jordan's Michael Collins, which looks likely to get nominations for cinematography (Chris Menges) and music (Elliott Goldenthal), with Liam Neeson in with a good chance of a best actor nomination. Helen Mirren has an outside chance of a best actress nomination for another Irish film, Some Mother's Son. This is how the main contenders shape up in the principal categories.
BEST PICTURE
There are three certainties: Shine, Fargo and The English Patient, with Jerry Maguire and The People Vs. Larry Flynt likely to take the remaining two slots. However, they face strong competition from Evita and Secrets & Lies. Long shots are The Crucible, Hamlet and Breaking The Waves.
BEST DIRECTOR
At least three nominees will overlap with best picture, most likely Anthony Minghella (The English Patient), Scott Hicks (Shine) and Joel Coen (Fargo). Alan Parker (Evita) and Milos Forman (Larry Flynt) should take the remaining places, but do not discount Cameron Crowe (Jerry Maguire) and Mike Leigh (Secrets & Lies). Longer shots are Nicholas Hytner (The Crucible), John Sayles (Lone Star), Woody Allen (Everyone Says I Love You), Kenneth Branagh (Hamlet), Lars Von Trier (Breaking the Waves), Jane Campion (The Portrait of a Lady) and Neil Jordan.
BEST ACTRESS
The toughest category by quite some way this year with at least 10 contenders for the five places. My money's on Madonna (Evita), Courtney Love (Larry Flynt), Frances McDormand (Fargo), Brenda Blethyn (Secrets & Lies) and veteran Debbie Reynolds who makes a glowing comeback in Mother.
The other leading candidates are Emily Watson (Breaking The Waves), Kristin Scott Thomas (The English Patient), Diane Keaton and Meryl Streep (both for Marvin's Room), Gena Rowlands (Unhook The Stars), Laura Dern (Citizen Ruth), Gwyneth Paltrow (Emma), Nicole Kidman (The Portrait Of A Lady) and the aforementioned Helen Mirren.
BEST ACTOR
Geoffrey Rush (Shine) has already collected a shelf full of awards and is the front runner, Tom Cruise (Jerry Maguire) and Woody Harrelson (Larry Flynt) are sure to be nominated, and Ralph Fiennes (The English Patient) and Liam Neeson could well take a place each. The opposition includes Kenneth Branagh (Hamlet), Nathan Lane (The Birdcage), Daniel Day Lewis (The Crucible), Mel Gibson (Ransom), Billy Bob Thornton (Sling Blade), and incredibly, Eddie Murphy (The Nutty Professor), who is the subject of a big promotional push.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The gifted young Edward Norton is eligible for Larry Flynt and Everyone Says I Love You but is most likely to be nominated for Primal Fear. Other sure shots are Cuba Gooding Jr. (Jerry Maguire) and Paul Scofield (The Crucible), with the other two places probably going to William H. Macy (Fargo) and either Noah Taylor Armin Mueller Stahl for Shine. The other chief contenders here are Samuel L. Jackson (A lime To Kill), James Woods (Ghosts Of Mississippi), Derek Jacobi (Hamlet), Harry Belafonte (Kansas City) and Gary Sinise (Ransom).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Golden Globe winner Lauren Bacall (The Mirror Has Two Faces) is a certain nominees are Joan Allen (The Crucible), Barbara Hershey (Portrait Of A Lady) and Juliette Binoche (The English Patient). Renee Zellweger (Jerry Maguire) may well shade Marion Ross (The Evening Star) for the fifth place. Also in contention are Goldie Hawn (Everyone Says I Love You), Marianne Jean Baptiste, Kate Winslet (Hamlet), Gwen Verdon (Marvin's Room) and Marisa Tomei (Unhook The Stars).
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Generally the most bizarre Oscars category, where anything can happen - and usually does. The Czech Kolya, the French Ridicule and the Russian Prisoner Of The Mountains - should be the front runners, whatever happens, with the other two places contested between The Eighth Day (Belgium), Pretty Village, Pretty Flame (Yugoslavia), Devil's Island (Iceland), Jerusalem (Sweden) and The Deathmaker (Germany).
AWARDS ENCORE
Whatever its Oscar prospects, Patrice Leconte's Ridicule, which opened the French Film Festival in Dublin last October, is the front runner for this year's French film awards, the Cesars, which will be presented at the Theatre des Champs Elysees in Paris tomorrow night. Ridicule, which opens in Dublin next month, has 12 nominations, followed by Bertrand Tavernier's Capitaine Conan with nine.
Both movies are nominated for best French film, along with Gabriel Aghion's Pedale Douce, Andre Techine's Les Voleurs, Cedric Klapisch's Un Air de Famille, and the documentary, Microcosmos. Leconte, Tavernier, Techine and Klapisch are all nominated for best director, along with Jacques Audiard for Un Hems Tres Discret.
The nominees for best actress are Fanny Ardant (Pedale Douce), Catherine Deneuve (Les Voleurs), Charlotte Gainsbourg (Love Etc.), Anouk Grinberg (Mon Homme) and Marie Trintignant (Le Cri De La Soie). Shortlisted for best actor are Daniel Auteuil (Le Huitieme Jour), Charles Berling (Ridicule), Fabrice Luchini (Beaumarchais), Patrick Timsit (Pedale Douce) and Philippe Torreton (Capitaine Conan).
The five nominees for best foreign film are Fargo, Secrets & Lies, Breaking The Waves, Il Postino and the Belgian La Promesse. Jeanne Moreau will present a special award to Sharon Stone at tomorrow night's ceremony, which will be compered by Antoine de Caunes and can be seen here live on TV5 at 9.35 p.m.
EIGHT TO COME
No less than eight movies will open in Dublin next Friday. Among them are Kenneth Branagh's four hour Hamlet, Ken Loach's Carla's Song, Richard Attenbrough's In Love And War and Edward Burns's She's The One. There's also the controversial Powder, Rosie O'Donnell in Harriet The Spy and the reunion of the Fish Called Wanda team for Fierce Creatures. Hoping to distract attention from all of them is young Enda Hughes with his wacky and winning The Eliminator from Northern Ireland.
