There is every likelihood that record-breaking heat experienced this July will be regarded as part of a cool summer by the end of this century.
That was highlighted this week by Dr Friederike Otto, a specialist who focuses on the extent to which a disrupted climate arising from human-generated greenhouse gas emissions exacerbates extreme weather events. Searing heatwaves impacting Europe and North America would have been almost impossible without climate change, rapid attribution analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) shows.
As a result of the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities, heatwaves and record temperatures are no longer rare, WWA indicated.
This summer has exposed the vulnerability of many millions of people. These are the inevitabilities tied into a climate crisis that remains, for the most part, unaddressed.
Oppressive heat can be found in countries ranging from Puerto Rico to China and from Iran to Siberia, with impacts varying from region to region
Wildfires across Canada turned skylines orange and emitted smoke reaching as far as New York. Ten EU countries are at grave risk from uncontrolled fires. The Greek government said on Wednesday that it was dealing with 600 wildfires.
Record temperatures experienced across three continents have caused heat domes sitting on large land masses for weeks on end and, in the case of the Mediterranean, a Saharan heat blast sweeping northwards.
Oppressive heat can be found in countries ranging from Puerto Rico to China and from Iran to Siberia, with impacts varying from region to region. Sea temperatures have risen alarmingly, especially in the North Atlantic, and there is unprecedented ice melt in the Antarctic.
Uncharted territory
This is the uncharted territory warned of, that has come sooner than anticipated and with surprising ferocity, prompting concerns that what we are living through now is just the beginning.
There has been little respite in the past week, as extreme weather events continued to play havoc. Europe’s weather is split by a rare divide, with intense heat across the south of the Continent (cooling marginally in recent days), while powerful storms lash countries in the north, including a tornado in Switzerland.
Wildfires raged in Greece, Spain and southern Italy. Wind, floods and hail hit parts of Germany, France and northern Italy, where hailstones the size of tennis balls rained down on Lake Garda.
“Even though I know these impacts are to be expected, I am alarmed at the ferocity and scale of the impacts. It’s one thing to read projections of what will happen in scientific papers and UN reports – it’s another thing to see thing to see these events in reality,” said environmental scientist Dr Tara Shine of sustainability consultants ChangeByDegrees.
“Nowhere on Earth is unaffected. Wildfires, floods and heatwaves are affecting every continent. Even Antarctica is sending a message; vast regions of the continent’s coastline were ice-free for the first time in the observational record this winter,” she added.
Ireland may be on the cooler side of an altered jet stream in the Earth’s upper atmosphere but it did not escape, as flash floods struck Raphoe in Donegal and Castlederg in Tyrone. There are indications that it will have rained somewhere on the island every day during July, interspersed with frequent torrential outbursts – yet more signs that climate change is making normal weather worse.
Ireland’s Climate Change Advisory Council, an independent watchdog, issued its latest verdict with brutal frankness: the pace at which the Government is implementing agreed climate policy ‘is not acceptable’
On Thursday, the EU climate service Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organisation said: “It is extremely likely that July 2023 will be the hottest July and also the hottest month on record, following on from the hottest June on record.
“Record-breaking temperatures are part of the trend of drastic increases in global temperatures. Anthropogenic [man-made] emissions are ultimately the main driver of these rising temperatures,” Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo added.
‘Global boiling’
UN secretary general António Guterres said the era of global warming had ended and “the era of global boiling has arrived”.
“Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning,” he said.
Rising temperatures means more climate mayhem. The agencies warned of immediate threats to health; the environment and whole economies.
Meanwhile, Ireland’s Climate Change Advisory Council, an independent watchdog, issued its latest verdict with brutal frankness: the pace at which the Government is implementing agreed climate policy “is not acceptable, given the existential threat and impact” climate change is having on society.
With global temperatures set to continue to increase until significant action is taken, it said “this will lead to more extreme weather events in Ireland such as heatwaves, droughts, storms and flooding”. Comparing Ireland to other countries, it said that this State emits 8.5 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per capita a year, twice the global average.
This points to a disconnect with the reality of what vast tracts of the world are experiencing right now, in a scenario where emissions ceilings have yet to be set in some sectors and legally binding carbon budgets are likely to be exceeded by wide margins.
The council’s report coincided with a controversial study suggesting the vital ocean current system that helps regulate the northern hemisphere’s climate and ensures milder weather in Ireland could collapse any time from 2025. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), which includes the Gulf Stream, brings warm, tropical waters north and cold water south.
Researchers at University of Copenhagen say it may be veering towards total breakdown between 2025 and 2095, causing temperatures to plummet, ocean ecosystems to collapse and storms to proliferate around the world.
Tipping point
Many scientists cautioned that the research comes with significant caveats. But what is clear is that a weakened Amoc is moving to a tipping point that is far too close for comfort.
What does all this say about where we are in addressing linked climate and biodiversity emergencies?
One thing is for sure: no one who has been working on climate for the last few decades has any desire to say ‘I told you so.’ We don’t want the predictions to come true
— Dr Tara Shine, environmental scientist
“What it says to me is that we have not yet ‘felt’ climate as a threat and or been motivated and inspired by the opportunities of living and doing business sustainably,” said Dr Shine.
“For many of us in Ireland, climate change still leaves our emotions untouched – and while that remains the case, we will push it down the list of priorities and fail to put pressure on our leaders to do more.
“One thing is for sure: no one who has been working on climate for the last few decades has any desire to say ‘I told you so.’ We don’t want the predictions to come true.
“We want knowledge of their imminent reality to be enough to trigger change. But we have to do more to communicate better, to create awareness and to build the skills to do things differently across every part of society, from our schools to our workplaces.”
How should we respond as individuals, organisations or countries?
“If you care, talk about it, share stories of why this matters to you,” she said.
“Your voice matters. If you don’t care – ask yourself why not? If you are in a position of influence, think about your legacy and make changes to make that a positive legacy today.”
