The UN climate talks faced into their most difficult phase on Monday morning as the standout issue of fossil fuels phase-out, and exact language around how it might be referred to in a possible final agreement, blocked progress.
For almost 200 countries present in Dubai at Cop28, this impasse was also stalling efforts on an overall deal on emissions reductions; finance to support a transition of clean energy and an adaptation goal with funds for vulnerable countries to prepare for inevitable impacts from global warming and extreme weather events.
Publication by lead negotiator Sultan Al Jaber of a refined version of a potential decision text on Monday was delayed by several hours. This follows his convening of all ministerial negotiators into the one room on Sunday in an attempt to get more clarity their positions.
Tensions were heightened today when he called an unscheduled press conference for 10.30am local time, only to cancel it a few minutes later with the world’s media gathered.
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His stamp will be on the new text version which is expected to indicate how ambitious Cop28 will be; especially on possible language around “phase out” or “phase down” of fossil fuels, and use of terms like “unabated” – regarded by many parties and climate campaigners as a get out of jail card for the oil and gas sector.
UN secretary-general António Guterres returned to the talks with a clear message for ministers on fossil fuels and required language in the text, a key dividing line between countries.
“It is essential that the global stocktake recognises the need to phase out all fossil fuels on a time frame consistent with the 1.5 degree limit – and to accelerate a just, equitable and orderly energy transition for all,” he added.
But he gave an indication of what may be a compromise in the outcome, highlighting one key to success was for nations to reach agreement on the need to “phase out” fossil fuels, albeit with countries possibly moving at different rates.
“The COP covers many aspects and it depends on the global balance but a central aspect, in my opinion, of the success of the COP will be for [it] to reach a consensus on the need to phase out fossil fuels,” he told reporters. “That doesn’t mean that all countries must phase out fossil fuels at the same time.”
“A transition that takes into account the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and reflective capabilities, in light of national circumstances – not to reduce ambition but to combine ambition and equity.”
Teresa Anderson, climate justice lead at non-profit ActionAid, said the comments from Mr Guterres show “behind closed doors, the biggest players are stubbornly reiterating red lines instead of choosing a safe future for billions of people.”
She said: “The UN secretary general has nailed his flag to the mast, echoing the demands of developing countries and civil society organisations. In calling for Cop28 to agree the fair timelines and finance that can make a fossil-free future possible for all countries, Guterres is piling pressure on a tiny number of powerful countries.”
In an another intervention, Simon Stiell, head of the UN climate change body in charge of Cop, called out “tactical blockades” and “strategic landmines” as the talks enter their final hours. “We do not have a moment to lose in this crucial home stretch.”
The highest climate ambition, he added, meant more jobs, stronger economies, stronger economic growth, less pollution, better health”. This would also ensure “much more resilience, protecting people in every country from the climate wolves at our doors”.
A strong outcome would deliver “secure, affordable, safe energy for all, through a renewables energy revolution that leaves no country or community behind, instead leaving our dependence on fossil fuels behind”, Mr Stiell said.
But he warned finance must be the bedrock to scale-up climate action on all fronts; a view that has been endorsed by Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan.
The areas where options need to be negotiated have narrowed significantly, Mr Stiell confirmed. They included “how high is our ambition on mitigation” – cutting greenhouse emissions – and whether there was sufficient support to deliver it. “The highest levels of ambition are possible for both. But if we reduce on one, we reduce our ability to get either.”
“The Global Stocktake needs to help all countries get out of this mess. Any strategic landmines that blow it up for one, blow it up for all. The world is watching, as are 4,000 members of the global media, and thousands of observers here in Dubai. There is nowhere to hide,” Mr Stiell said. – Additional reporting Guardian
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