The challenges facing the world in responding to the climate crisis become clearer after the United Nations Cop28 climate summit in Dubai. Some glaring realities immediately surface, as do increasing risks from insufficient collective action – and yet opportunities from decarbonising the planet are brought into sharper relief.
1. The fossil fuel era is over – the non-fossil world beckons
The path to a world without fossil fuels has been set; no small feat given the cumbersome UN decision-making process. Cop28 filled in much of the detail of that journey. It provided clear indication that the only acceptable and logical course is to cut consumption and production of fossil fuels, while ramping up renewables.
The game is up for Big Oil, and they know it. The sector most responsible for the crisis employs the best analysts (beside the best misinformation pedlars), and their conclusions has been clear-cut for some time. What’s more, a global market shift is already in train. It goes down to simple economics; renewables are by far the cheapest (and cleanest) energy in the world – led by solar.
That doesn’t mean the sector won’t deploy every trick to fully exploit remaining oil and gas assets – or extract yet more from the ground on the spurious basis of enhancing energy security for countries. If their analysts fully factored in climate risk, then petrostates would have had no option but to agree to a fast, orderly phase-out. But they know that reality too.
[ Cop28 deal is imperfect but significant progress for tackling the climate crisisOpens in new window ]
For science says if all the coal, oil and gas from existing and under-construction fossil fuel projects were fully burned, the world would warm far beyond 1.5 degrees, according to a report by the UN Environment Programme. That’s assuming their emissions could not be captured.
There was one telling indication in Dubai that illustrated petrostates realise it’s all but over. Details emerged of a letter by the Opec oil cartel warning its member countries with “utmost urgency” that “pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences” – it was the last line of defence. Of course, it was referring to a tipping point for them and not the world when it comes to climate disruption.
Put bluntly, analysis of oil and gas reserves shows if we don’t keep oil and gas in the ground, we are going to be cooked.
2. With the world set to get even hotter, climate change will show its nasty face
For those who cannot stomach more “climate doom”, look away now. This is the reality: almost every major study released before and during Cop28 is alarming.
Record temperatures that baked parts of the world this year will be higher in 2024, and may even breach the critical 1.5 degree limit for global average temperatures pursued under the Paris climate pact. A natural El Nino will exacerbate this.
Global emissions are at their highest level ever, while our climate is changing more quickly now than it has done for tens of millions of years. That inevitably means more extreme weather events across the planet but also increased unpredictability with risk of impacts that are irreversible, and even catastrophic.
The likelihood of climate tipping points with cascading consequences, and loss of ability to control our destiny, is growing with every passing year. A tipping point is where a small alteration in a system can cause abrupt changes that are hard or impossible to reverse because of amplifying feedback processes. It is like leaning back on a chair: when it is near the balance point, just a small nudge can make it tip over.
The combination of global warming, biodiversity loss and human lifestyles means six of the nine planetary boundaries are transgressed, suggesting Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Nature can only absorb so much before turning on us. The vulnerability is such that even phase-out of fossil fuels will not stave off climate breakdown unless we also protect the natural world.
Recognising factors at play in an overheating world is essential to implementing the right responses, as well as deploying positive levers that can be used to bring Earth to a safer sustainable place.
Maybe we should be planning more for a world of over 1.5 degrees, while at the same time fighting relentlessly to stave off every 10th a degree rise.
[ Good cop, bad cop: what the Cop28 agreement says and what it meansOpens in new window ]
To ease climate anxiety, it must be noted that peak emissions could be realised within two years, even in Ireland.
A fossil fuel industries pledge to dramatically reduce methane – which is 80 times more harmful than CO2 in the short term – if delivered will slash global emissions. Real commitments on this is one of Cop28′s big wins.
Fossil fuels could peak before 2030. If that happens, it translates into emissions reductions and temperature reductions relatively quickly.
Reasons for concern have never been clearer, yet the course to ease it is clear – and doable.
3. The climate finance money gap is many trillions
Cop28 made a big play of its commitment to transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.
Yet coughing up the money to do so for climate-vulnerable countries already experiencing terrible impacts from global warming is hopelessly absent.
There was big fuss about a “loss and damage” fund for vulnerable states, which reached $800 million (€728 million) by close of Cop28. But that is only 0.2 per cent of what’s required for countries least responsible for an overheating world.
The International Energy Agency has estimated a redirection of $5 trillion (€4.5 trillion) is needed to decarbonise, of which $1.5 trillion (€1.3 trillion) should go to developing countries, primarily to enable them to access clean energy. The inequity is highlighted by Africa’s difficulties. It has the best potential for renewable energy of any continent and yet the Netherlands has more solar power, while 650 million people in Africa still don’t have access to basic electricity.
The one bit of good news here is the world’s finance system is at last being overhauled to be in a position to direct funds in this direction.
4. Cops actually work in spite of everything
Cops are chaotic and almost overwhelming to the average delegate because of sheer scale. UAE hosted 100,000 people in the largest Cop ever. Arguably, there is too much emphasis on big pledges outside the negotiating rooms that all too often fail to deliver.
That said, it remains the only mechanism to determine global action on climate, and it’s where the tiniest Pacific island has the same standing as the mighty US or China.
Despite obvious bloatedness there are other positives. It is a genuine opportunity for climate activists, environmental NGOs and aid agencies– from Ireland to Tuvalu – to get together and discuss tactics. Increasingly, it a forum for the best climate scientists and academics who specialise in sustainability.
It has assumed more relevance of late and much of that is down to money – for good or ill. It’s where you now find chief executives of mega-corporations – playing the embarrassment card; “what are you doing to decarbonise your operations?” in transitioning to a green world, with opportunity to boast, “we’re doing XYZ”.
Big banks and the venture capitalists are present including the reforming World Bank, IMF and multilateral development banks – critical agents to channel enabling funds to developing countries. They (finally) realise immense opportunities in decarbonising.
Yes, there is plenty of greenwashing and vulnerable countries risk exploitation by rich countries on renewables projects and in the voluntary carbon markets, where credits are traded.
Good bits aside, Cops should not be beyond reform. They must be made fit for purpose in responding adequately to runaway climate change. A series of smaller summits on critical themes may work better.
Former US vice-president Al Gore plans to gather advocates to push for decisions to be approved by a “super majority” of 75 per cent of nations. It would be “extremely difficult”, he admits, but “stakes are so high that we have to try every strategy”.
As for what Cop28 delivered, veteran Cop-watcher Dr Michael Jacobs summed it up: it has yielded an agreement by 193 countries that “has the potential to be a virtuous circle of policy, innovation and scale” in addressing the climate emergency. Not so bad.
5. A yawning behaviour gap means critical climate actions are not getting done
People understand climate change like never before; the threat has come to their doorstep. Young people of every nationality feel this acutely, as was so evident in Dubai. They articulate a compelling message that a solution has to be found beyond individual nations. Yet the collective response doesn’t match what’s needed.
Chair of the Elders Mary Robinson highlighted the gap between understanding and action while at Cop28 when calling for a “community up” movement; “opening up conversations everywhere, in every workplace, in every family, because this is where we need to be now”.
It necessitates “lots of discussion about how we’re going to move more quickly because we want our leaders to be more in crisis mode. They can’t be in crisis mode if they’re not being pushed from below.”
It’s about deploying the lever of democracy, ensuring politicians break out of short-termism; especially their fear of not being re-elected. This is vital to actioning solutions and supports more quickly.
6. A clean energy revolution is forging ahead – innovative climate tech is in its slipstream
Everywhere at Cop28 was evidence of the switch to “cheap, clean and infinite” renewables. What was also tangible is ramp-up of innovation with a mission to create new or enhanced climate solutions.
Wizardry included machines to magic carbon out of the air, solar farms that can work night and day doubling output, AI-charged decarbonisation, trains that levitate on standard tracks while travelling at 500km/h and solar-powered “responsible” yachts.
It was all there – a promise of technological fixes with investment models to back them, including gazillions in public and private money, backed by complementary scaled up research capacity.
While overemphasis on technology to come and concentrating efforts on carbon removal risk distracting from the immediate task at hand, it was a remarkable manifestation of human ability to apply innovative thinking to the world’s most intractable problem.
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