The Cop29 gathering of almost every country on Earth is gearing up for 12 days of intense climate negotiations from mid-November against a turbulent backdrop of geopolitical tension and a planet overheating beyond safe boundaries.
The annual UN conference of the parties (Cop) is a cauldron of negotiators, politicians, policymakers, scientists, energy experts, big business, environmentalists, diplomats and journalists. More often than not there is an outcome for the betterment of humanity.
But of late that is less guaranteed. Almost 100,000 delegates gathered in Dubai last year amid suggestions Cops have become bloated and too cumbersome. The business has been undermined by self-interest and, arguably, after recent years of hosting by authoritarian petrostates, fossil fuel lobbyists are impairing its core role.
Cop29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, is somewhat different because of distracting conflicts; security issues in the region; and some corporates pulling back on environment, social and governance investment (ESG) because it has become politicised, and on zero-carbon ambitions. Pre-occupied with “immediate” challenges, countries don’t have the bandwidth to prepare for potentially cataclysmic climate change. This may make for a low-key summit when it should be ramping up collective action like never before.
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The Cop process may be imperfect but it’s essential to collective action, says Hans Zomer of Global Action Plan (GAP), an organisation forging strategic alliances to mobilise businesses and other organisations. “We need urgent action to address the climate and biodiversity crises. International diplomacy is key, and Cops are fundamental mechanisms to reach a global consensus,” he says. “We need to transform society and need Cops to shape the policies that can bring change. However, that won’t be possible unless they are made more accountable and more open to grassroots voices.”
Overriding questions apply: is the world slashing carbon emissions? Building resilience for inevitable climate disturbance? Supporting the most vulnerable (ie Africa and the Global South) and transitioning to clean energy at the required pace? Actions are needed to avoid catastrophic impacts, irreversible changes to the planet and a world of 3.1 degrees temperature rise this century that is irreconcilable with human life.
The answer is “No!” But there are emerging positives that can be built on, while not ignoring negatives and blockages to progress.
Negatives
There is no way to avoid climate disruption, so adaptation to it is going to be an inevitable part of our future with big impacts on lifestyle and investment priorities in ensuring countries and communities are sufficiently resilient.
Recent reports confirm Ireland and the world are not where they should be. The findings of the UN Environment Programme on global temperature rise can be simply summarised: “3.1 degrees faces us this century if we pursue business as usual; 2.6 degrees (making many places unlivable) if countries meet their stated goals and a relatively benign 1.5 degrees if we increase climate spending by just 1 per cent of annual global GDP [gross domestic product].”
A new generation of young climate leaders are emerging; smart, intelligent and ‘networked across borders’ – no longer confined to protest groups raising voices outside negotiating rooms
Science continues to raise red flags. The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 in its atmosphere was three to five million years ago, when the temperature was 2 or 3 degrees warmer and sea level was between 10m and 20m higher than now.
Positives
A remarkable escalation of solar power is starting to put a real dent in prospects for fossil fuels, says US environmentalist Bill McKibben. “Over under the big top, solar is in the centre ring and wind and batteries are in the other two, and what an act they’re putting on!”
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest world outlook shows solar becoming the world’s single-largest source of electricity by 2033. We are moving at speed into the age of electricity and renewables’ inherent greater efficiency will push fossil fuels into decline. As a result, energy-related emissions will peak imminently, it says.
Through work with Breakthrough Energy, Microsoft founder Bill Gates is at the cutting edge of clean tech. “This year, I’ve seen something remarkable: The world has entered what I’m calling the ‘deployment era’ of climate technology,” he said in an update.
Major corporations are seizing opportunities to lower emissions, he added, citing Siemens’ decarbonisation of its 1,300 building worldwide; LuxWall’s innovative vacuum-insulated windows, American Airlines’ pursuit of sustainable aviation and Microsoft’s use of low-carbon cement in data centres. “While much more innovation is still needed, we’re seeing progress in every industry and at every stage, from discovery to development and now deployment.”
There is hope on the Cop front too as a new generation of young climate leaders are emerging; smart, intelligent and “networked across borders” – no longer confined to protest groups raising voices outside negotiating rooms.
Co-founder of the Youth Negotiators Academy Veena Balakrishnan told Concern Worldwide’s Copon event in Dublin recently that she managed to get inside the negotiating room at Cop26 in Glasgow but was struck by the dominance of white men “with the same hair colour”.
Supported by the UN and the Irish Government, the academy trains young people to become diplomats at multilateral environmental negotiations. Almost 300 young people in 35 countries have benefited. It not merely airs the views of young people, she explained, it’s feeding into intergenerational action, instilling a more diverse response backed by justice and trust.
“It takes time to become a leader. We need to invest in them today. I see a lot of them progressing forward, and we will [soon] have a whole generation of diplomats, negotiators, who are able to push for very different outcomes,” she added.
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The IEA sees an “increasingly narrow but still achievable path to staying below 1.5 degrees, which would need more clean electricity, faster electrification and 33 per cent emissions cut by 2030″. Despite that narrow window, McKibbin says the energy scenario with 1 gigawatt of solar being added daily – the equivalent of a nuclear reactor at a tiny fraction of the cost – is “by far the most hopeful thing happening on our planet at the moment”.
Blockages
So why doesn’t the world push on to get to a better place? Fundamentally, lack of adequate pace/delivery points to a communications problem, according to Dr David Robbins, director of DCU Centre for Climate and Society.
There are multiple challenges to communicating about climate change, he says. First, the topic itself is complex, involving multiple scientific disciplines, so it’s difficult to get across to lay audiences. “And the solutions are similarly complex. While often technical in nature, these solutions often throw up debates about inclusion, fairness, gender and class.”
Add to the mix a well-funded network of organisations trying to discredit climate science and muddy the waters around solutions, and it’s clear the climate communications space is “extremely contested and polarised”, he adds.
Most people get their climate information from news media now. As Wolfgang Blau of the Reuters Institute puts it: “Whether we want it or not, the task of explaining the climate crisis to the public has fallen to the media.”
[ Global South must be saved from fossil fuels and other climate-harming practicesOpens in new window ]
Reporters face all the usual challenges of climate communications and more particular to their job: climate change is not a good fit for how they normally cover news, Robbins says. “And they must cover this vast and nuanced topic at a time when their industry is financially challenged, resources are scarce, and audiences are fragmented and increasingly disengaged.”
He encourages wider reporting to include a vision of what lies ahead once necessary actions are taken. “Reporters are very good at telling us about climate impacts, about wildfires, droughts, floods and heatwaves – all the things we want to avoid. But they often have less time and space to tell us all the good things, the co-benefits that come with climate action.”
Dealing with climate change forces us to look at long-standing problems we have to examine sooner or later anyway: our energy, planning, transport and food systems, he adds. “Even without the imperative to reduce emissions, these systems are not sustainable in the long term.”
So what is does a sustainable future look like? “For me, a post-transition Ireland is a place with clean air, electrified public and private transport, a green electrical grid, a place with well-insulated and energy-efficient homes, good active travel infrastructure, and a public discourse and policy environment that is led by science.” The transition will be easier for the well-off, Robbins notes – more marginalised and neglected sections of society must be supported.
What works
Lasting change requires informed and empowered citizens, Hans Zomer adds. “This means investing in local governance and community-driven processes everywhere, as well as in international diplomacy. Politicians rarely can lead, but will follow when citizens show the way. Private sector accountability, through pressure from informed consumers and international regulation, is another potential catalyst.”
‘Whether we want it or not, the task of explaining the climate crisis to the public has fallen to the media.’
— Wolfgang Blau
Politicians and corporate leaders, however, tend to favour technological solutions over deeper value and behaviour changes, he says. “That approach often disregards the root causes of – and the many connections between – the various ecological crises. Tech can blind us to the fact that real solutions to the environmental crises require lifestyle changes from all of us.”
Businesses are not yet scaling up their climate actions to the level needed, Zomer says. Surveys show a significant growth in awareness and corporate commitments, but also a gap between ambitions and actual investment. Many do not view climate risks as having a significant impact on their business, or often focus more on mitigation (reducing emissions) than adaptation (addressing climate impacts).
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“At GAP we help companies to empower their employees. After all, it’s the people on the inside who are best placed to come up with ideas on how to shift their company away from fossil fuels, and ensure it achieves – and advocates for – more ambitious climate and biodiversity targets.”
To rally Ireland, UCC energy specialist Prof Hannah Daly and Jim Scheer of the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland identified “the Big 5 measures that take us 90 per cent of the way to our 2030 obligations”.
They entail speeding up rollout of solar farms and onshore and offshore wind projects with grid enhancement; electrifying transport; reducing unnecessary car use; retrofitting with heat pumps and district heating; and decarbonising industry. These “will do the heavy lifting of the energy transition, and we all need to rally around these no-regrets measures”.
Decisions made today by leaders across politics, society, industry and government will determine “the property and wellbeing of current and future generations”, they added. “Time, not technology, is the main barrier. No miracles are necessary: the emissions savings required this decade can be achieved with existing solutions that have already been identified in national climate action plans – the question is whether we will act quickly enough.”
“The legacy of our generation, and of our leaders, depends on how we act right now,” Daly and Scheer said in a blog post – a viewpoint that equally applies in the global context.
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