The UN climate talks in Baku enter a critical 24 hours as efforts are needed to pull back from the brink of collapse by agreeing an acceptable global goal of scaled-up finance for developing countries.
Difficulties were compounded by claims from more climate ambitious countries of backsliding on how to accelerate carbon emission reductions – agreed in the final hours of Cop28 last year in the United Arab Emirates.
The row is about reaffirming the pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels”, made at last year’s Cop28 in the UAE. Many countries want to do this to maintain its political momentum.
Hopes of a breakthrough at the deadlocked Cop29 in Baku were dashed after a new draft of a possible deal with no specific figure was condemned by both rich and poor countries.
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Faith in the ability of the Azerbaijan presidency to produce a deal ebbed on Thursday morning, as the draft texts were criticised as inadequate and providing no “landing ground” for compromise. Climate Cops often hinge on late compromises, but many negotiators said bridges to close gaps were not apparent as talks look set to run over into the weekend.
Instead of setting a global goal for at least $1 trillion in new funds for developing countries to tackle the climate crisis, the text contained only an “X” where numbers should have been.
UN secretary general António Guterres returned to Baku and warned failure could jeopardise national climate action plans with “potentially devastating impacts as universal tipping points are getting closer”.
He said countries needed to find a “clear” agreement on climate finance. “Amidst geopolitical divisions and uncertainties, the world needs countries to come together ... I appeal directly to ministers and negotiators: soften hard lines. Navigate a path through your differences and keep your eyes on the bigger picture.”
UK secretary for energy security and net zero, Ed Miliband, who has been helping the host country in trying to put better shape on the text, highlighted the risk of a backward step on mitigation – actions to cut emissions – based on the draft text released on Thursday morning.
“I’m afraid the text doesn’t yet meet the moment and the demands of this Cop. On mitigation, we see ... increasing disasters all around us. So in this context, standing still is retreat and the world will rightly judge us very harshly if this is the outcome,” he said.
He said some countries believed Cop29 needed to focus on climate finance, “but that cannot possibly be the case when we see the evidence of the climate crisis in all of our countries”.
His view was strongly backed by Ireland’s Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan, who said at a briefing that if lack of mitigation ambition prevailed then Cop29 “will be to no avail”. It would not protect all people of the world, especially developing countries, he said.
Ambition meant stopping the status quo, including vested interests wishing to retain the current fossil fuel system, he said – a position endorsed by a high ambition coalition of countries from North and South America, the EU, Asia, Africa and “small islands and big”.
On transitioning away from fossil fuels, Mr Ryan said there was no clear mechanism to advance what was agreed last year. “There has been a backsliding; an attempt to interpret what was agreed as a menu of options. That has to stop.
“The world needs hope and confidence and trust that we can stop climate change. What is present is not balanced. It doesn’t reflect this imperative; the real demand for action.”
[ Climate talks enter final hours amid row over $1 trillion fund and China roleOpens in new window ]
Asked if he was angry with the stance of Arab countries, he said he didn’t wish to point fingers but Arab countries were threatened by climate change too, notably extreme heat. It was in their interests to move to a clean energy system that would bring climate justice where “you will never fight over renewable power”.
“The Arab group will not accept any text that targets any specific sectors, including fossil fuels,” said Albara Tawfiq from the Saudi delegation at a plenary gathering reviewing progress.
China also said it opposed an explicit mention of the fossil fuel pledge, contained in the Cop29 deal. “There should be no singling out of a single paragraph,” China’s delegate told the gathered nations.
Bolivia’s delegate, Diego Pacheco, also spoke against it. “Developed countries continue trying to impose on developing countries a prescriptive and intrusive approach” to cutting emissions, he said.
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