Electrification is Ireland’s missing climate link

Electrification is the bridge between Ireland’s renewable energy potential and its climate commitments

Ireland has become a global leader in onshore wind development. This is worth celebrating
Ireland has become a global leader in onshore wind development. This is worth celebrating

Expanding renewable energy capacity is rightly a central mission in Ireland’s climate strategy. The Government’s climate action plan lays out ambitious milestones for offshore and onshore wind and solar energy, and has created detailed plans to remove barriers and create the conditions to achieve those targets. Ireland has become a global leader in onshore wind development, and the industry is eager to continue building. This is an achievement worth celebrating.

But renewable energy supply is only one half of the picture. Realising their transformative potential is only possible if the clean electricity that comes from wind and solar farms is used to replace fossil fuels. This may sound so obvious that it shouldn’t need to be stated, but a critical misunderstanding persists: some interpret climate commitments under the climate law as simply building more renewables.

But this is not the case. Renewables are a tool, not the goal in themselves. Ireland’s legally binding commitments are expressed as carbon budgets – limits on greenhouse gas pollution in five-year periods. Emissions reductions only happen when renewables actively displace fossil fuels.

Right now, this is not happening. Between 2017 and 2023, nearly all growth in renewable electricity was matched by increased demand, almost entirely driven by data centres. As a result, fossil fuel use has not declined, and emissions remain stubbornly high. This disconnect threatens Ireland’s ability to meet its climate targets.

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The data centre industry argues its growth is necessary to decarbonise Ireland’s economy, claiming that new electricity customers are needed to support offshore wind development. While it’s true that Ireland may one day produce a surplus of clean electricity to meet the needs of power-hungry industries like data centres, this argument ignores the present reality. Today, the extraordinary growth in energy demand from data centres is straining our electricity system and delaying emissions reductions.

It’s an especially flagrant claim to suggest more data centres are need for Ireland’s climate goals given that dozens of data centres are seeking to connect to the natural gas grid to produce their own electricity, to circumvent the constrained electricity grid in the Dublin area. Financing offshore wind in the future cannot compensate for increased emissions this decade.

The electrification of heating homes and businesses, with both heat pumps and heat networks also needs to be prioritised

Renewable developers are seeking financing deals – known as power purchase agreements – with data centres because they often need a guaranteed customer to buy their power, at a fixed price. It allows the developer certainty into the future. Unfortunately, future electricity demand is uncertain, and renewables developers cannot all get contracts through renewable auctions, known as the Renewable Energy Support Scheme (RESS).

This points to an important gap in Ireland’s energy policy – clean electricity can power homes, vehicles and industries, directly replacing fossil fuels. Yet, electrification is happening far too slowly.

Ireland’s transport is almost entirely reliant on combustion engines, but electrification is possible and would bring huge benefits. Progress on this front has regressed – EV sales dropped last year with concerns over depreciation, but new EVs are hitting price parity with fossil fuelled cars, and the electrification of buses and trucks is becoming more viable with advancements in battery technology and falling costs.

Industry is also poised for electrification. Today, 28 per cent of industrial energy demand is met with electricity, but this share has barely increased in two decades. Remaining demand is mainly for heat, which is met by fossil fuels. According to the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, more than half of this can be electrified, and new innovations like thermal batteries can work well with a variable renewable electricity system. Shifting energy-intensive industries from natural gas to electricity would cut emissions, improve energy security, and make industry less vulnerable to fluctuating fossil fuel prices.

The electrification of heating homes and businesses, with both heat pumps and heat networks also needs to be prioritised.

Ireland’s offshore wind capacity will eventually exceed domestic electricity needs. Instead of defaulting to data centres, this surplus could power innovative industries that address global challenges. For example, Ireland could produce synthetic fuels for aviation, or even novel proteins and green fertilisers to decarbonise agriculture. Clean electricity could also support carbon removal technologies like Direct Air Capture to help reverse climate change, which is increasingly likely to be necessary given how close the world is to crossing dangerous climate tipping points.

Electrification is the bridge between Ireland’s renewable energy potential and its climate commitments. Without it, we risk stagnating emissions and continued reliance on fossil fuels despite successes in renewable energy. The next government must place an electrification action plan at the heart of its energy strategy, aligning every sector towards the same goal.

Hannah Daly is professor of sustainable energy at University College Cork