The vulnerability of buildings on the Irish coastline to flooding due to “extreme coastal events” exacerbated by climate change has increased to 4.5 per cent of all properties, according to analysis published on Wednesday.
Conducted by Gamma Risk, the study highlights a risk of potential insurance claims rising to €4.5 billion in a worst-case scenario in the decades after 2050, including for private residential and commercial buildings.
Many of the at-risk properties have been built since 2020 and are concentrated in the Dublin region, which also has the highest number of potentially vulnerable new builds, it warns.
The analytics company evaluates risk for local authorities and insurance companies using advanced modelling and mapping, and updates coastal projections every five years, factoring in an increasing likelihood of more extreme storms and sea levels rising due to global warming.
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Overall, 4.5 per cent of addresses are currently at risk of flooding in an extreme coastal event, equating to 104,518 properties. Of 112,354 new addresses since 2020, some 4,774 (4.25 per cent) are at risk of flooding in an extreme coastal event.
The analysis provides further evidence of the likelihood that thousands of properties around the coast will become uninsurable, or face exceptional high annual premiums where property insurers are prepared to provide cover.
One in 20 buildings in Ireland already have difficulty accessing flood insurance, a 2024 Central Bank of Ireland study concluded. It also analysed flood risk of every residential and commercial address in the State, down to Eircode level.
Dublin alone would contain a third of potential claims (about €1.6 billion), Gamma Risk says, while it is also “the most prevalent location of these newly constructed buildings which are in an at-risk zone”. This is particularly the case with properties in the Dublin 1, 3 and 13 areas, including the East Wall and docklands at the mouth of the river Liffey.
The analysis highlights increased vulnerability of properties in the Shannon estuary, with Co Clare projected to see claims totalling almost €500 million post-2050 due to the number of at-risk buildings in Limerick city and Shannon.
Co Louth, because of the likelihood of particularly high flood waters, could face claims of €434 million, it estimates, while the next biggest potential claims would be in counties Cork (€398 million); Galway (€335 million) and Limerick (€313 million).
The analysis concludes that areas south of Dublin, stretching along the coastline to the southeast, could be less vulnerable due to reduced risk of storm surges because of their particular climatic conditions, such as reduced exposure to open ocean waves.
