On Monday, Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill published new analysis of the GP workforce in advance of a forthcoming review on general practice.
Representatives have for many years warned of a looming crisis in GP services due to retirements and single-handed practices. Overall, the analysis found there was a “reasonable” level of GP coverage nationally in 2022.
So just how many GPs are there in Ireland?
The answer to this is not as straightforward as you would think. Due to a lack of reliable data, the report urges caution around the numbers and highlights a margin of error.
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Bearing this in mind, it says in mid-2022 there were 3,262 clinically active GPs providing standard services in 1,451 general practice settings.
That reflects between 2,690 and 2,740 whole-time equivalent GPs – or one per 1,879 people in Ireland.
Is that enough?
That really depends on which particular location you’re talking about.
The Minister’s report states: “While some GPs are retiring and leaving the profession, the rate is at an expected level, and new recruits will more than replenish these numbers.” However, that doesn’t mean every area will have sufficient coverage.
So are there areas of concern?
Yes, the most significant finding from this report is around potential regional black spots of coverage.
East Clare, for instance, has the lowest number of GPs on a regional population basis – 0.35 per 1000 people – 44 per cent lower than the national estimate of 0.63.
The area also has one of the lowest numbers of general practice nurses and midwives (GPNS), the numbers for which typically increase when GPs are in short supply.
The average contract age, or the length of time a GP has had a HSE contract, is 23.4 years in East Clare. That is 65 per cent higher than the national average, indicating GPs there are older.
“In East Clare, where there are significant supply constraints, GPs are deferring retirement. It may be that younger GPs are moving into Clare but preferring to establish practice in the West,” the report said.
Is that the only area of concern?
No. The areas East Limerick and Ballina; Northwest Kildare; and Citywest and Blanchardstown, Dublin also have lower GP numbers per population compared to other areas.
The report highlights how Counties Meath, Leitrim, Kildare and Wexford already have existing low GP numbers and have experienced a rapidly increasing population in recent years, likely to exacerbate capacity challenges.
And which locations have the highest number of GPs?
South Dublin Inner City; South Limerick City; Blarney and North Cork City; and Westmeath and Offaly have a high number of GPs for their populations, with estimates ranging from 0.91 to 1.2 whole time equivalent GPs per 1,000 people.
But surely there are other GPs who could take up the work?
A lot of the “at-risk” areas are practices run single-handedly by one GP – meaning if they retire or close, there is nobody else to fill the gaps.
Adding to this, increasing numbers of GPs in these areas is not always a simple fix; neither the health service nor the Government can force individual doctors to move to the areas that need them most.
And so what does all of this mean for patients?
It’s not great news, to say the least. A reduction in coverage in certain areas could result in people having to wait longer to be seen or having to travel much further to their nearest GP.
Neither of these outcomes is ideal, as research has previously indicated these are two factors – with cost being another – determining why some people choose to delay attending their doctor.
However, being aware of these potential risks allows for future planning to prevent these black spots from developing.
