Annual cancer deaths are set to rise to more than 18 million in 2050, according to a new global study.
Cancer cases worldwide are predicted to increase by 61 per cent to 30.5 million over the next 25 years, while the 18.6 million cancer-related deaths forecast by 2050 marks an increase of nearly 75 per cent from 2024.
Rising death tolls will be mostly driven by population growth and increasingly ageing populations.
The study, covering 47 cancer types in 204 countries between 1990 and 2023, was published by medical journal The Lancet on Wednesday.
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It found Lebanon had the largest increase in cancer-related deaths since 1990, up 80 per cent to 117 per 100,000 people when adjusted for age. The country also recorded the largest jump in incidence rate, up 162 per cent to 233 per 100,000, while the United Arab Emirates had the largest decrease of 56 per cent, to 103.
Kazakhstan had the largest recorded decrease in cancer-related deaths, down 58 per cent to 82 people per 100,000 in 2023.
Ireland’s incidence rate went up by 9.5 per cent during the research period, bringing it to just under 342 per 100,000. However, mortality rates have seen a decrease in Ireland since 1990, dropping by 80 per cent to 129 per 100,000.
Although death rates, when adjusted for age, decreased by 24 per cent worldwide between 1990 and 2023, the study found that this reduction is largely driven by high- and upper-middle-income countries. Age-standardised rates of new cases worsened in low-income – up by 24 per cent – and lower-middle-income – up by 29 per cent – countries.
[ Two in five men in Ireland die before the age of 75, report findsOpens in new window ]
Breast cancer was the most diagnosed cancer globally, with tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer being the leading cause of cancer-related death.
Of the estimated 10.4 million cancer deaths in 2023, more than four in 10 were found to be due to modifiable risk factors.
Behavioural risk factors contributed to the most cancer deaths across all country income levels, with tobacco use the leading factor, contributing to 21 per cent of cancer deaths globally.
The leading risk factor differed only for low-income countries, where cancer deaths were mostly linked to unsafe sex – 12.5 per cent of all cancer deaths.
In 2023, a greater proportion of global cancer deaths in men were linked to potentially modifiable risk factors, at 46 per cent compared to 36 per cent in women.
For men, the top risks included tobacco, unhealthy diet, excessive alcohol consumption, occupational risks and air pollution. Obesity, high blood sugar and unsafe sex, alongside alcohol and tobacco, were found to pose the greatest risks to women.
