There are expected to be between 800 and 1,100 people in hospital with the flu on any given day next week.
That is according to the Health Service Executive (HSE). While the figures are significant this is an improvement on initial modelling which suggested the figure could be as high as 1,500.
This year’s flu season arrived a number of weeks earlier, putting pressure on the system at a particularly crucial time for socialisation.
The most recent figures from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC), show there were 3,287 cases of the virus notified in the week ending December 13th. In the same week last year, this figure was 999.
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There have been 62 intensive care admissions and 17 deaths reported for this season to date.
Health chiefs were concerned early on about the severity of this winter flu season, particularly in light of the highly transmissible variant in circulation – A(H3N2) subclade K.
[ Flu jab uptake among HSE healthcare workers ‘dismal’ with only 29% vaccinatedOpens in new window ]
Hospital systems are under pressure, with many of them having introduced visiting restrictions to stem the spread of the infection. Consequently, some family members will be unable to spend time with sick relatives over the festive period. There has also been “unprecedented” demand on emergency departments (EDs).
But not all hospitals are concerned about the coming week. In some places, the trends show positive signs, and suggest a tide is turning. The HPSC said in the week ending December 13th, influenza hospital bed occupancy “decreased slightly”.
A spokeswoman for the Mater hospital said: “Based on testing and inpatient data, influenza activity at the Mater reached a peak in the second week of December, with a reduction in confirmed cases over the past week, in line with trends across the Dublin and North East region.”
Furthermore, the number of patients on trolleys is not as high as senior officials anticipated. On Friday, there were 600 people in hospital with the flu, but 125 people on trolleys at 8am, according to HSE figures, with 13 of these patients waiting more than 24 hours for a bed.
A further 370 patients were in “surge capacity”, which is when beds are taken from elsewhere in the hospital to meet emergency department demand and often resulting in the cancellation of planned procedures.
A senior Department of Health source said hospital managers are seeking to ensure timely discharges, and working well over weekends, while patients are also using other available healthcare pathways to reduce demand on emergency department.
Children’s hospitals, however, are feeling the strain with prevalence of the virus highest among those aged 14 and under, according to the HPSC.
There were 1,053 cases in this age group in the week ending December 13th, representing one third of total reported cases that week.
The annual celebrity ward walk through Children’s Health Ireland (CHI) in Crumlin was due to take place on Monday, but has been cancelled due to “ongoing challenges presented by the current flu epidemic”.
According to the HPSC’s respiratory infection survey, CHI Crumlin had 56 patients with severe respiratory illnesses last week, the highest of the four tracked sites.
Senior paediatric healthcare sources suggested the hospital influenza activity peaked around two weeks ago, but the sites have been under “sustained pressure” since then. It can’t get much worse, they said, with one source describing it as being like “Armageddon”.
As the peak arrives, the health system is in a relatively good position, with hospitals coping much better than initial projections predicted.
It remains to be seen just how disruptive the peak of the season will be, but a clear picture is emerging that this won’t be equally felt across the system.
