The DUP is moving forward together. So says the slogan, in red and blue on a white background, which was emblazoned behind the podium at the party’s conference in Belfast on Saturday.
Yet there is one direction in which the DUP is clearly not moving – or certainly, not yet: back into the Assembly, from which it has been entirely absent since the May election, nor indeed the Executive, which it walked out of in February as part of its protest against the Northern Ireland protocol.
The party faithful were quick to show their continued support for this stance on Saturday, clapping as the party leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, told them that “either the prime minister delivers the provisions of the Protocol Bill by legislation or by negotiation and ensures that our place in the United Kingdom is restored, or there will be no basis to re-enter Stormont”.
The party chairman, Lord Morrow, taking to the stage after Donaldson concluded his speech, repeated that endorsement with a hearty “well done, Jeffrey!”
“Take it from the conference today, this party is totally, solidly united behind your stance,” he said. “Our new secretary of state has some catching up to do, but he’ll learn … in time.”
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Mood music changed
Whether or not Northern secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will “learn” remains to be seen; what is certain is that the mood music between the UK and EU has changed dramatically in recent weeks with a new administration in place in London and Belfast, and this thawing of relations has given rise to the fresh hope that a deal can be done on the protocol.
For Donaldson’s part, he was clear on Saturday that the way in which the protocol is solved is immaterial; what does matter is that there is the right result, which from the DUP’s point of view means either enacting the Protocol Bill – the legislation which would permit the UK to unilaterally scrap parts of the protocol – or reaching an agreement with the EU which would amount to the same thing.
Among senior DUP figures the view was mixed, with some expressing confidence that prime minister Liz Truss will deliver the outcome the party wants. “She knows what she wants to do … when she has a strategy, she sticks to it,” said one. Others worried about the chances of yet another Conservative betrayal. “We’ve been burnt before,” they said.
Herein lies the big problem facing the DUP: what to do if the deal reached is not to its satisfaction?
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Wait and see approach
For the meantime, the DUP can afford to wait and see. It has risen in the polls since the May elections – in Saturday’s speech Donaldson again emphasised the “strong mandate we received” - and is under no immediate pressure from its voters to get back into the Assembly.
Even if the Northern secretary follows through on his threat that a fresh election could be called at the end of October - as he has said he will do if the Assembly is not restored by then – it is likely to become a restating of the current positions.
“We are ready and we will take our case to the people as the lead party of unionism because we’ve never been afraid to take our case to people,” said Donaldson to cheers.
Yet sooner or later, the DUP will have to make a decision. If things go their way, this is straightforward. “If decisive action is taken on the protocol that restores our place fully within the United Kingdom, this party will take its place once again in a fully-functioning Executive,” was how Donaldson put it in his speech.
If it does not, then their alternatives are to go back into the Assembly – with all the challenges this would bring in terms of trying to sell this U-turn - or to stay out for what would likely become an extended period of time.
All the indications are that these fresh talks are in fact the last roll of the dice; the DUP has to hope its gamble has paid off.