Russia’s warships and submarines are expected to return to the waters of the North Atlantic Ocean later this month for the annual naval show of force by the country’s military.
The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has left Russia’s maritime forces stretched thin, meaning this year’s display is expected to be around five times smaller than previous exercises.
But the operation will draw attention from Irish officials who are becoming increasingly concerned about the vulnerability of Ireland’s subsea infrastructure to interference.
The exercises will be closely watched from Nato headquarters in Brussels which is alarmed at Moscow’s intentions towards the many communications cables, energy interconnectors, pipelines and wind farms located off Europe’s western frontier.
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The letters “CUI” – standing for critical undersea infrastructure – were rarely far from the lips of most officials who spoke to The Irish Times during a two-day visit to Nato’s sprawling political and military headquarters in Belgium this week.
The creation of a new acronym is a sure sign the alliance is worried about something, one official joked.
Last year, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg announced the creation, under the command of a German general, of a “Critical Undersea Infrastructure Coordination Cell” at Nato headquarters to “facilitate engagement with industry and bring key military and civilian stakeholders together”.
Russia’s interest in undersea infrastructure is nothing new. Systematic mapping of pipelines and cables has been part of its naval doctrine since the 1970s.
But the laying of large numbers of data cables through Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone (which extends 320km out from the Irish coastline) in recent decades and plans for fields of offshore wind turbines means Moscow has now has taken a particularly keen interest in Irish waters.
Russia is interested in the waters off the north west of Ireland as they form part of the Greenland Iceland UK – better known under another acronym “GIUK” – Gap. This is a vital ocean passageway for both Nato and Russian submarines and warships. If a war breaks out, control of this gap will be one of the primary naval objectives for both sides.
After years of seablindness, the Irish Government seems to be waking up to the vulnerability of its maritime domain. Its first ever defence policy review, published in July, placed a strong focus on maritime threats, particularly to undersea infrastructure. The Government is of the view that these threats cannot be handled alone, especially with a tiny force such as the Irish Naval Service and Air Corps.
Co-operation with Nato, therefore, is seen as crucial. Sharing information on threats to undersea infrastructure is a big part of the Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP), a detailed document agreed between Ireland and Nato last year outlining the areas of co-operation until 2028. Ireland has also expressed interest in joining the Nato undersea cell in the near future.
So far, this co-operation amounts to little more than information sharing and joint training exercises. There is nothing on paper calling for the deployment of Nato assets in Irish waters or any commitment to common defence as laid out in Article 5 of the alliance’s founding document.
Nevertheless, news of this deepening relationship has drawn sharp criticism from neutrality campaigners, who worry it is the thin end of the wedge in relation to future membership.
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin’s spokesman on defence, accused the Government of being focused on “increased co-operation with Nato in a context of an increased European militarisation agenda”.
“It is clear that the Irish people value our neutrality and having an independent foreign policy. It is also clear that the current Fianna Fáil/ Fine Gael Government have attempted to undermine these concepts, with an aim to render Irish neutrality virtually meaningless,” the Cavan Monaghan TD told The Irish Times.
If the Government is keen on joining Nato, it is not a sentiment that seems to be shared by the people working there. Ask a Nato general or political officer if Ireland should join the alliance and you will get a studied reply along the lines of: Ireland would be welcome to join but it is entirely up to the Irish people.
Military co-operation between countries with common values is vital, said Laurie Walker of Nato’s political affairs and security policy division, especially in this era of heightened Russian aggression.
“John Donne said no man is an island. It’s also true that no island is an island,” said Walker, one of the few Nato officials willing to speak on record. “Nato can work with its partners on interoperability, on capabilities to better secure and protect themselves.”
Asked if Ireland should become a full member, bound by the Article 5 commitments to common defence, Walker would go no further than referencing Nato’s “open door” policy which states that membership is open to any “European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area”.
The Irish Government position is that membership is not on the horizon but that greater co-operation is required with Nato and the EU on military matters.
The ITPP represents a significant step forward in that relationship. As well as maritime security, it outlines increasing co-operation in cybersecurity, hybrid threats and the UN’s Women, Peace, and Security Agenda. It also gives Ireland greater access to Nato resources, including sensitive intelligence.
Notably, in an apparent change of course, Sinn Féin seems to be coming around to this type of co-operation, despite its mistrust of the current Government’s intentions.
“Sinn Féin are not opposed to defence co-operation with other states or international bodies,” said Mr Carthy.
However, he said UN engagements should be prioritised and the starting point for considering other proposals should be “the protection of our neutrality and the need for adequate Oireachtas and public oversight.”
Despite increasing Government enthusiasm, opportunities for Ireland to deepen the Nato relationship are becoming more scarce.
In the years before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Nato had become something of a Jack of all trades. The collapse of the Soviet Union stripped the alliance of its original purpose: to deter and defend against a large-scale military attack on western Europe. Nato refocused on other areas such as counterterrorism, crisis intervention and peacekeeping.
This gave Ireland many opportunities to contribute, while abiding by the UN Charter and the triple lock. That is the three safety locks that Ireland must go through before more than 12 members of the Defence Forces can be sent abroad on peacekeeping missions and other exercises: Government sign-off, Dáil approval and a mandate or authorisation from the UN Security Council.
Irish troops deployed to a NATO-led peacekeeping mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina and to aid in counter-IED [improvised explosive device] operations in postwar Afghanistan. It has 13 troops under Nato command in Kosovo.
But since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Nato has been forced to return to its roots. Almost all of the military alliance’s focus is now on deterring Moscow from expanding its ambitions in Europe through a constant and overt display of force.
[ Defence Forces monitor armed Russian naval vessel off west coastOpens in new window ]
[ Ireland likely to join Nato project to protect undersea cablesOpens in new window ]
In an office in the Supreme Allied Headquarters Europe (Shape) in the Belgian city of Mons, generals displayed maps showing Nato battle groups, warships and aircraft, pre-positioned in eastern Europe to repel any Russian attack on the Alliance.
There is much less talk of peacekeeping missions, crisis intervention or indeed anything that is not related to the primary mission: “Deter and defend”.
The result is Nato now thinks about Ireland even less than it used to.
Part of this reason for this ambivalence is Nato has little to gain militarily from Irish membership. The potential increase in troops and materiel coming from the Defence Forces would be mean little in the grand scheme of deployments when it comes to deterring Russia.
While in the early days of Nato, the generals believed Ireland would be useful as a base for nuclear bombers, advances in aircraft and missile technology means this is no longer the case.
The ready availability of Irish ports to Nato ships would be of some benefit in patrolling the North Atlantic but the alliance has been managing without them for more than 75 years.
From the Irish point of view, there is also little obvious military benefit to joining the alliance. It is widely accepted that Ireland already unofficially enjoys the protection of the Nato umbrella due to its geographical position. After all, Irish airspace is already protected by a Nato member under a secret agreement with the UK.
This has led to accusations, repeated last in May in a report from a prominent UK think tank, that Ireland is “freeloading” off Nato.
If Ireland is freeloading on Nato, it is an arrangement that, for now at least, seems to suit both sides.
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