The number of young Ukrainian men arriving in Ireland has increased by 42 per cent as growing numbers seek to avoid conscription to the front lines of the country’s war against Russia.
Almost four years on from Russia’s invasion, officials in Kyiv have warned they are facing a severe troop shortage due to young men leaving the country in an attempt to avoid mandatory military service.
An analysis of figures compiled by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) shows that while the overall number of Ukrainian refugees arriving in Ireland has almost plateaued, the number of men in their early 20s coming has increased sharply of late.
In the year to June, the number of Ukrainians in Ireland across all age groups grew by 6 per cent. However, the increase in male Ukrainian arrivals aged between 20 and 25 was 42 per cent during the same period. The rate of growth among women in the same age group was just 9 per cent.
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Since the start of the war in February 2022, just under 114,000 Ukrainians have claimed temporary international protection in Ireland, although up to a third of these arrivals have since left the country.
According to the most recent data, this figure includes 3,434 men aged between 20 and 25.
The surge in arrivals of young men stands in contrast to refugee patterns in the earlier stages of the war. During the first years of the conflict, the vast majority of refugees coming to Ireland were women, children and older people. Young men made up a much smaller proportion of the total.
The latest figures mirror events in Ukraine and the bloody war of attrition on the front lines in the east of the country.
Under Ukrainian law, men are automatically conscripted at the age of 25. This was lowered from 27 last year. As a result, increasing numbers of young men are fleeing before coming of age.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy is now under pressure from military officials to lower the age of conscription further to fill troop gaps at the front line.
Ukraine is badly outnumbered in many areas, with Mr Zelenskiy saying his troops were outnumbered by a margin of eight to one in the ongoing fighting for the eastern city of Pokrovsk.
However, there is strong public opposition to lowering the conscription age. Some European Union countries also fear it will lead to a fresh surge of refugees and more pressure on already stretched services.
Increasing numbers of Ukrainian refugees have been arriving in Germany and surrounding countries in recent months, prompting governments to restrict benefits available to new arrivals.
Mr Zelenskiy has indicated he wants to safeguard the young population as long as possible to allow Ukraine to rebuild after the war. However, observers believe Russia’s slow, grinding advance in the east may force his hand.
Regardless of the action he takes, the rate of young men arriving in Ireland is expected to increase further by the end of the year. This is due to a measure introduced in August that relaxes a previous ban on all men under the age of 60 leaving Ukraine.
Men aged 18 to 22 are now permitted to travel abroad. The measure was introduced to discourage parents sending their children abroad before they reach 18 and to allow teenagers to finish secondary school.
