1. Grades are at the same level as last year — but were artificially pushed upwards
Minister for Education Norma Foley pledged that this year’s Leaving Certificate results would, on aggregate, be “no lower” than last year’s. This was aimed at ensuring this year’s cohort of about 60,000 Leaving Certs were not disadvantaged in the CAO points race, given that thousands of students with inflated grades from last year are also seeking college places this year.
The State Examinations Commission implemented the Minister’s instructions through a “post-marking intervention” which involved increasing grades upwards, on aggregate, by about 5.6 per cent. This adjustment was not applied universally to all students’ results. Those towards the very top had their grades increased by a smaller amount. This was to avoid the bunching of high-achieving students on the maximum points score of 625.
Hopefully, this will help prevent the scenario which emerged last year when a number of students on maximum points failed to secure their first preference courses on the basis of random selection.
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Read more on the Leaving Cert
- Full coverage of Leaving Cert 2022
- How to understand the new points system
- Advice, options and what next: irishtimes.com coverage of the results
- The Irish Times view: reform process must continue
- University president calls for end to grade inflation
2. CAO points will remain at a high level for many courses
The strong grades for the 2022 results will inevitably lead to a similar pattern of high CAO points requirements in 2021. There will be exceptions to this scenario. Minister for Further and Higher Education Simon Harris says an additional 1,000 CAO places have been created in high-demand areas such as medicine, nursing and engineering, which may take some of the heat out of the points race in individual courses.
This is because CAO points requirements are simply those of the last student to secure a seat in the lecture theatre. The expansion of places, as a result, should lead to a downward movement in points requirements. However, the pattern of applications for individual disciplines changes each year. An increase in interest in a particular programme will inevitably lead to an increase in the points requirements for that course.
3. Inflating grades is easy — deflating them will be harder
Having ensured fairness to the class of 2022, how do we return to a more normal pattern of grades? From the perspective of universities and employers, and the integrity of the examination process itself, it is vital that the awards which students achieve at the end of second level is an accurate reflection of their ability and talents.
Any sudden shift back to normal grades would adversely affect students due to sit next year’s exams. We saw in the UK this summer the negative effect of a rapid adjustment downwards in grades awarded at A level to the current year’s cohort of students. A more gradual “glide path” towards normal grades would seem to make sense, to help ensure any specific Leaving Certificate year group is not unduly penalised.
4. The second set of Leaving Certificate exams in July is here to stay
About 400 students ended up sitting a second set of Leaving Certificate exam papers in July. This provision, initially introduced by the then minister for education Joe McHugh in 2019, was designed to facilitate those who experienced a family bereavement during the June exams. It was expanded this year to include those who either contracted Covid-19 during the exams in June or where an outbreak of Covid-19 in an exam centre disrupted the sitting on that day.
A number of cases, however, arose this year where students who had medical emergencies during the exams were initially refused a second sitting. The concern is that a student could, in theory, see an exam and fake an illness. This is clearly not the case for students who suffer traumatic events such as seizures. We may see a revision in rules to accommodate these students next year.
5. Shortage of examiners may hasten Leaving Certificate reform
Norma Foley has announced planned changes to the Leaving Certificate in the coming years, setting a 40 per cent target for continuous assessment by the students’ own teachers, and moving paper one in English and Irish to the end of year one of the Leaving Certificate programme. These plans are likely to meet fierce resistance from the teaching unions. However, the shortage of examiners this year raises questions over how sustainable the current system is. Add to that the fact that the student voice — which has been central to decisions relating to the Leaving Certificate during Covid — will be highly influential in shaping the development of the Leaving Certificate in the coming years.
