Universities will be forced to use a lottery to select applicants for many high-points courses due to the volume of students securing high grades this year.
This is despite a move by the Government this year to add 1,000 additional college places in the hope of taking some of the heat out of the points race and reducing the use of random selection.
Random selection is expected across many courses with entry requirements of 550 points or more due to the “bunching” of students with top grades on foot of Leaving Cert grade inflation.
These courses are in areas such as medicine, dentistry, economics and finance, and management science, among others.
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In a small number of cases, students who secured maximum points – 625 – face losing out on their first choice in round-one offers due to number of other applicants who also secured top grades in all subjects.
In all, a total of just more than 84,300 people have applied for CAO courses this year. The points required for entry to individual courses will be released at 2pm on Thursday afternoon.
Overall, points for most courses are set to remain at a high level in line with last year, driven by inflated grades and high numbers of college applicants.
Government sources are hopeful that, overall, about three-quarters of applicants will get one of their top-three course preferences. This is broadly in line with recent years.
This year the Government provided an additional 1,000 college places targeted in high-demand areas where there are skill shortages such as medicine, healthcare, social care, engineering and courses relating to climate change.
Medicine, in particular, has been expanded by about 60 places this year, with the aim of boosting graduate numbers and reducing use of random selection.
However, it is understood that random selection will still be used in some medicine courses this year, although points may be at a slightly lower level.
The level of supply and demand for individual college courses, and applicants’ grades, are key factors in determining whether entry points go up or down.
There is likely to be upward points pressure in areas where there has been a surge in college applications this year such as environment, architecture/construction and some arts or humanities courses.
By contrast, nursing and many health-related courses recorded a decrease in applicants this year.
While much focus has been on the impact of grade inflation at the top end of grades, Prof Pól Ó Dochartaigh, deputy president and registrar at the University of Galway, has warned that some students on lower – but inflated – points may struggle in college.
Such students, he said, may have struggled to get 300-350 points in normal times but may now have these points and will progress to college on the back of the Leaving Cert grade inflation.
However, he said some may not cope given that students supports “cannot cover everything” and more independent drive is needed at third level compared with secondary school.
In an article for The Irish Times, Prof Ó Dochartaigh also called for Leaving Cert grades to return to normal levels and for a “serious discussion” around our desired participation rate in third-level education nationally. Ireland currently has the fifth highest rate in the world.
“Is that where we want to be? That discussion needs to start in earnest sooner rather than later, for the sake of our society and economy, and especially for the sake of our young people themselves. More than anything, we need to be honest with them,” he said.
