To make sense of the feeder tables, it is important to understand the component parts. There are two key numbers associated with each school listed: the total number of students who secured a first-year undergraduate place in college this year and the total number of Leaving Cert students who sat the exam in 2024.
It is also important to note that the percentage progression rates of Ireland’s second-level schools do not solely reflect the success of this year’s Leaving Cert class in securing college places through the Central Applications Office (CAO).
What can we understand about the makeup of this year’s cohort of school leavers and incoming first-year undergraduate students?
The State Exams Commission (SEC) reported to The Irish Times that 54,260 students in registered schools sat the Leaving Cert in 2024. The CAO on the other hand indicated that 58,352 sat the Leaving Cert in 2024. That would suggest that 4,092 candidates sat the exam outside of a recognised school. The vast majority of these students are likely to have taken the Leaving Cert in a full-time grind school. They are always included in the numbers attributed to individual schools because they will have attended a second level school up to at least the end of the Junior Cycle.
To understand the make-up of each year’s cohort of incoming first-year students, it is worth looking at the 51,534 students who, according to recent CAO figures, accepted a college place this year.
Of those, 43,197 are identified by Irish third-level colleges as being pupils at some stage of schools recognised by the Department of Education.
Therefore, the balance of 8,337 (16 per cent) who secured an offer through the CAO application process undertook their second-level schooling outside of the Republic of Ireland.
How many of the 43,197 who attended an Irish second-level school at least up to transition year sat the Leaving Cert in 2024?
We have two sources of information to determine this. None of the 7,796 applicants who received an offer in the two initial rounds in July and early August were current year Leaving Cert students, leaving 43,738 who secured their place in the subsequent rounds.
The CAO indicates that of the 51,534 incoming first year undergraduates in 2024 some 10,855 are 19 years of age or older upon entry.
As previously stated, 16 per cent of incoming first-year undergraduates secured an offer though the CAO application process had completed their second-level schooling outside of Ireland.
They also indicate that 6,029 are nationals of the UK, EU and beyond.
Allowing for the fact that up to 2,000 19-year-old college entrants may have sat the Leaving Cert in 2024 and that some of the entrants from outside of Ireland may be school leavers from previous years, we can estimate that between 14,000 and 15,000 of the 51,534 incoming undergraduate students in 2024 did not sit the Leaving Cert in June 2024.
That leaves us witharound 35,000 current-year Leaving Certs entering college in 2024. The CAO tells us that 47,268 current year Leaving Cert candidates applied for places in 2024. That gives us an overall success rate in securing a place of 74 per cent. Out of the 43,197 who secured a place at third-level, 80 per cent were current year Leaving Cert students, and the rest are either previous years or are from abroad
The percentage of progression listed in the last column is therefore not a “true rate” for the progression of the Leaving Cert 2024 class from each school to college this year as it incorporates those who sat the exam in previous years.
In the numbers provided to The Irish Times, each third-level institution includes all incoming first-year students who attended a given school, even though 20 per cent of incoming Irish first years will have sat the Leaving Cert previously.
Each of these students, excluding those who did not sit the Leaving Cert in Ireland, is included in the total number of students credited by colleges to each school.
We publish these numbers because it is all that CAO colleges are allowed to provide. They are precluded from stating how many students from the class of 2024 from each individual school secured a place this year. We know from CAO data that the average number we list is inflated and is in reality on average 80 per cent of the number provided to us, as data on a school-by-school breakdown is not provided.
Class of 2024 who progressed through the CAO
The total number of students sitting the Leaving Cert who applied for a place through the CAO in 2024 was 47,268. The figures on the number of students who sat the Leaving Cert in all schools in 2024 (the sits) show that 54,260 undertook the traditional Leaving.
The SEC provides The Irish Times with this data which allows the publication of the sits number next to each school’s name. Combining this data from the CAO and SEC shows that 87 per cent of sixth-year students sitting the traditional Leaving Cert in Irish second-level schools sought a place among the 36-plus institutions it represents. A further 3,000-plus students sit the Leaving Cert Applied each year.
Therefore 17 per cent of this year’s Leaving Cert class decided – in consultation with their teachers, guidance counsellors and, most importantly, their parents – that applying to the CAO was not the appropriate or best career development move for them. As access to accurate data for application numbers to the CAO from the individual schools themselves is not possible, The Irish Times includes this cohort in the sit numbers, upon which the success percentage of each school is based.
It is worth noting that the fact 17 per cent of school-leavers do not apply for a CAO college place is not an indication of failure. They may be planning to pursue a further education course, through an ETB college, which is more appropriate to their career goals.
Every year, thousands of Leaving Cert students take these level 5 QQI courses in post-Leaving Cert colleges. Many complete them and progress to CAO courses the following year (and are credited back to their original school in the data supplied by the colleges when they register).
Another cohort from that 17 per cent who do not apply for a CAO place may be going outside Ireland to continue their studies. They may also have applied to colleges in Northern Ireland or to colleges in the UK.
Factors influencing college choice
Each year, the tables show very large numbers of students who go to college attend schools in socially advantaged communities.
The data shows these students tend to opt predominantly for universities and teacher-training courses. Higher Education Authority (HEA) data shows these institutions have the lowest dropout rates (from 4 per cent in teacher-training colleges to 9 per cent in universities). Is that surprising, given the support these students receive from their parents?
The HEA data also shows students from schools in less-advantaged communities get far fewer places in high-points university courses and tend to progress to institutes of technology or technological universities. HEA data shows these students have more difficulties completing college, with dropout rates of up to 20 per cent common.
Student Universal Support Ireland (Susi) figures show a large proportion of successful grant applicants go to technological universities rather than traditional ones, confirming the social-class divide reflected in institutions’ student intake.
The progression tables also show how parochial our college choice is, and how the presence of a third-level college in an area increases the progression rates of students from second-level to third-level within commuting distance of those colleges.
Publishing this data is not passing judgment on the success of any school in supporting their students to get to college. For schools where both parents of many students are graduates, and where they have been supported throughout their education, getting a college place is no great reflection on the success of their school.
Alternatively, we are keenly aware that for schools in disadvantaged communities, securing third-level progression for even a small proportion of students reflects highly motivated teachers and is a fantastic achievement.
McManus scholarship programme
One of the most interesting pieces of data relating to schools’ success in supporting students from financially disadvantaged backgrounds throughout the entire island of Ireland can be seen in the JP McManus scholarship awards.
The awards, established in 2008 and worth ¤6,700 a year to each student, are given annually to some of Ireland’s best-performing students for the duration of their undergraduate degrees, and offer a lifeline to current sixth-year students who fear their families will never be able to afford the exorbitant costs now associated with attending third level.
There is no application process, but qualifying students must attend a non-fee paying school, be in receipt of a Susi grant and must also be sitting the Leaving Certificate for the first time. A total of 125 all-Ireland scholarships from the 32 counties are awarded annually.
Over the past 15 years more than 1,400 successful graduates have already qualified with primary and postgraduate degrees under the scheme.
Why does The Irish Times publish these charts given the caveats?
The Irish Times publishes these progression charts annually because they are based on data provided by the State Examinations Commission – total number of sits per school, and the third-level CAO colleges – total number of former pupils of each school attending first year in 2024.
Even if the information supplied to us could be more comprehensive, these charts are the only indicator of a school’s academic performance available to the public.
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