The “painful” random selection system is expected to be used again by universities this year to choose between top candidates for courses in high demand.
While the drop in grade inflation and additional spaces in courses like medicine and dentistry reduce some of the risk, universities across the State are preparing for the use of lottery systems to choose between candidates with the highest points.
This year marked the first stage of a gradual reduction in post-marking upward adjustment, which was introduced during the pandemic to maintain grades at the level to which they soared due to predicted grades and exam adjustments.
However, Leaving Cert results remain far above pre-pandemic norms, meaning those who received maximum points on Friday are not guaranteed their first choice.
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Last year, random selection was used in more than 20 courses, including five in Trinity, four in University College Dublin, and three in University College Cork.
Two courses: economics and finance in UCD and dental science in Trinity, which required the maximum 625 points, went to random selection in 2024. This resulted in some who obtained maximum points missing out, as they were allocated an unlucky number.
“Everyone understands the heartbreak for the individual, but there’s no way around it,” said one figure at a Dublin university, describing random selection as “painful”.
Several universities across the country on Friday were anticipating the use of random selection in the coming days.
“Everyone hates the lottery system, if there’s any way at all that we can stop it, we will,” they said, adding that colleges will be “trying hard” to minimise its use, though they expect it to be used in a small number of courses this year.
“There will be a lot of individual sad stories,” they said, noting some students who missed out on preferred courses last year after the lottery system could do so again this year.
This is because they will be competing with Central Applications Office applicants who took the Leaving Cert in previous years. There are 19,700 such applicants, the majority of whom sat their exams since 2020 and received a higher level of grade inflation.
Some 52 per cent of grades were artificially inflated this year, down from 68 per cent last year.
On average, marks were increased by 6.8 per cent, down from 7.5 per cent in 2024.
Although it would not say when it expects grades to return to pre-pandemic levels, the Department of Education said “the return to normal” will be done “carefully” in stages over the coming years.
“Minister [for Education Helen] McEntee has asked officials to work with the SEC [State Examinations Commission] to consider the approach for future years, both the level of future year adjustments to examinations and the timeline for phasing out the post-marking adjustment,” said a spokesman.
“The decision will be made in a timely way, to provide certainty as soon as possible for those students.”
