It would cost nearly €35 billion to build new, appropriate, permanent social housing for everyone with an ongoing need, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) of the Houses of the Oireachtas has estimated.
In a new report it calculates that there were there were 115,425 households with an “ongoing need” for permanent, State-supported housing at the end of 2023.
It says this comprises 58,824 eligible households on the main social housing waiting list in addition to 56,601 tenancies under the housing assistance payment (Hap) programme.
It says unmet need is based on a point-in-time assessment of the total number of households qualifying for social housing support whose social housing need is not being met – all eligible households currently on the main local authority social housing waiting lists.
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However, the PBO believes that as Hap tenancies are private rental agreements without the additional security of tenure afforded local authority tenants, “these households have an ongoing need for social housing and should also be tracked and considered when planning for social housing delivery”.
The report maintains that the number of households with an “ongoing need for permanent, State-supported housing at end-2023 was down slightly – by about 1.25 per cent – on the figure of 116,886 for the end of 2022″.
“The PBO estimates that at end-2023 there was a minimum of 235,659 people (4.4 per cent of the total population) making up the households with an ongoing need, including an estimated 92,116 dependent children (under the age of 18). This is equivalent to 6.6 per cent of all children aged 18 or under in Ireland.”
[ Just 43 Hap rental properties found in latest survey, with few outside DublinOpens in new window ]
The report says that 11.8 per cent of all households in the Galway City Council area had an ongoing need, the highest percentage share in Ireland. Dublin City Council was next at 10.4 per cent.
On a national level, the PBO estimates that the State would need to increase its existing social housing stock by 56 per cent to accommodate all households with an ongoing need.
The report says that “of particular concern to policymakers should be the number of households with an ongoing need whose main applicant is aged 50 or over”. It says that 27.4 per cent of the total ongoing need are over the age of 50, equating to 31,597 households, with almost half listed as single and, presumably, living alone.
“Within Hap, this over-50s single-occupancy cohort makes up over 12 per cent of total Hap households nationally. The difficulty in securing affordable mortgage finance and the unsustainability of renting into older age increases the likelihood this cohort will require State support for their housing needs in both the immediate and long term.”
The report calculates that it would cost the State €17.55 billion to build new, appropriate, permanent social housing for every household currently on the social housing waiting lists as well as a further €17.40 billion to construct the same for every household in receipt of Hap.
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