The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister will this evening discuss how to prevent the Belfast Agreement sliding into collapse after the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, pulled his three ministers from the Northern Executive. The two DUP ministers immediately followed with their resignations.
Mr Ahern and Mr Blair were disappointed but not surprised at the resignations, which were well flagged in advance. In the meantime behind-the-scenes negotiations are continuing to try to prevent an indefinite suspension of the institutions.
The Sinn FΘin president, Mr Gerry Adams, and Mr Trimble are understood to have met for an hour at Stormont yesterday, although Sinn FΘin refused even to confirm the encounter and Mr Trimble refused to give any detail of the discussions.
The two governments believe that Sinn FΘin's expressed determination to break this deadlock and Mr Trimble's willingness to re-enter an executive with Sinn FΘin should the IRA start a process of decommissioning indicate that there is still hope of a breakthrough.
The British and Irish leaders will discuss this latest political logjam on the margins of the EU summit in Brussels this evening while in Dublin this morning the Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, and Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, will hold urgent talks.
Dr Reid now has seven days to decide whether to suspend the institutions and initiate a review of the agreement or, which is unlikely, to call fresh Assembly elections. Mr Trimble indicated last night that he would revoke the resignations if over these seven days the IRA carried out a "meaningful and verifiable" act of decommissioning.
Senior Dublin and London sources last night agreed with the analysis of Mr Trimble that without an IRA move on arms Dr Reid would have no option but to suspend by next Thursday. The other option would be to appoint SDLP and Sinn FΘin Assembly members, and possibly one Alliance MLA, to the five ministerial positions vacated by the UUP and DUP. "That is not a runner," said a Northern Ireland Office source last night.
Senior Sinn FΘin figures say an IRA move on arms is still possible but that were it to happen it is contingent on an Ulster Unionist commitment to work the institutions thereafter and to leave future action on arms to the IRA and the decommissioning body.
They said that the British and Irish governments could also help provide the "context" to facilitate a gesture on arms by further delivering on issues such as demilitarisation, policing, and safeguarding the institutions of the Belfast Agreement.
Again London and Dublin sources insisted that all these matters were covered in the Weston Park proposals. "We can provide further clarification if necessary but all their demands are substantially dealt with in the Weston Park document," said one London insider.
Mr Trimble expressed exasperation at the Sinn FΘin demand for an Ulster Unionist commitment to fully operate the institutions, implicitly saying that he had already demonstrated this commitment.
When asked at Stormont yesterday if he would fully work the institutions and if he wanted to be returned as First Minister, Mr Trimble replied "For the last 18 months we operated them without decommissioning." Mr Trimble also indicated that should the IRA start putting arms beyond use there would be no unnecessary unionist quibbling over the type of decommissioning as long as it met the legislative demand that these weapons were "permanently unusable and permanently inaccessible".
Sinn FΘin, while blaming Mr Trimble for the deadlock, was relatively sanguine. "We are not walking away from the agreement or from the process. Our commitment is to make this process work," said Sinn FΘin Assembly chief whip Mr Alex Maskey.
