Analysis: Fine Gael is back, Sinn Féin has arrived, and the next two years should see a real contest for control of government writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
Suddenly, there is an alternative government in waiting. Despite the leaching of political support from the established political parties to Sinn Féin and Independents, Fine Gael has gained enough to be able to present itself credibly as the core of an alternative coalition in waiting.
With Labour's first preference in the local elections standing still, Fine Gael's recovery will now help it solidify Enda Kenny's position as leader of that potential alternative government, despite Labour's claims for Pat Rabbitte. The weekend results do not solve all Fine Gael's problems, but at last the party has the momentum it has lacked since 2002.
The political landscape has therefore changed, and not just because of the quantum leap in the size of Sinn Féin's presence. For the Government parties, the days when "it's the economy stupid" was an adequate election mantra are over. Unemployment, inflation and taxes are low, economic growth continues to pick up. Yet the Government parties, particularly Fianna Fáil, have been given a savage beating.
Fianna Fáil's worst election result since the 1920s has been matched by a Fine Gael resurgence to around 27 per cent, a five point gain since the 2002 General Election and just one point below its good 1999 local result. Enda Kenny ran himself into the ground over the past month, covering some 12,000 kilometres in a national tour with the energy normally associated with, well, Bertie Ahern.
Bertie Ahern was on his own tour for much of the campaign: Around Europe for final talks on the EU Constitution, and to the US for the G8 Summit. However, it is doubtful whether his presence in Ireland throughout the campaign would have made much difference. Voters have done to Fianna Fáil what opinion polls and canvassers have over the last month predicted they would do.
In contrast, Fine Gael has surpassed all predictions, barring its own. Last night it was on course to achieve in style the four objectives it set for itself at the start of the campaign: to retain four European parliament seats; to increase its first preference vote above the 2002 figure; to retain its local authority seat numbers; and to elect new councillors who will make credible General Election candidates in 2006 or 2007.
The party has pushed its vote up beyond what most observers thought possible. It was set last night to retain its four Euro seats, and to come close to retaining or even surpassing its 277 local government seats won in 1999.
Most importantly, perhaps, it has put in place new councillors with potential to be Dáil candidates in the future. In Dublin, where it was reduced to just three of 42 Dáil seats in 2002, it has elected articulate young councillors such as Brian Gillen and Lucinda Creighton in Dublin South East, Leo Varadkar in Dublin West, Maria Bailey in Ballybrack and others.
Pundits and political opponents said they couldn't do it. They were wrong, and the Fine Gael figures who crowed a little about this yesterday were entitled to do so.
Sinn Féin has made its expected gains. It has won representation around the State in places where it never had it before, and may find itself sharing power in a number of councils, most significantly in Dublin.
Initial indications last night were that working class urban voters had deserted Fianna Fáil in significant numbers, and that Sinn Féin, the subject of concerted attack and denunciation by the Government in recent months, was the beneficiary.
Sinn Féin won its first seat in Waterford, while the party's Waterford-based Munster Euro candidate David Cullinane now has the profile with which to build towards a Dáil seat. The party's impressive Euro candidate in the East constituency, John Dwyer, has also made himself a serious contender for the Wexford Constituency, while Donegal North East-based Pearse Doherty was the revelation of the Euro campaign in North West and will challenge for a Dáil seat at the next General Election.
In Dublin city there are now just three wards where Sinn Féin does not hold a council seat. The party topped the poll in Artane, Ballyfermot, Cabra-Glasnevin, Donaghmede, Finglas and North Inner City. The party still has to perfect candidate strategy - in Artane Sinn Féin's Larry O'Toole won over one-and-a-half quotas but with no running mate to transfer to, his surplus was of great assistance to the Labour Party.
The other components of the potential alternative coalition government had contrasting results. Labour became the largest party on Dublin City Council and won a second European Parliament seat. But last night it looked as if its national first prefrence vbote in the local elections was static at 11 per cent, although it may win some extra seats.
The party would have been hoping for better than that. With the parliamentary party acknowledged as having an unacceptably high average age, and at least two sitting deputies expected to retire at the next election with no high profile replacements available, they would have been hoping to elect more prospects for the future. A number of new councillors were elected in different parts. The party will be pleased with its four extra councillors in Carlow/Kilkenny, but disappointed with its failure to win any council seat in Meath.
While Fine Gael is on course for significant Dáil seat gains on the weekend's performance, Labour still has work to do. It also faces an interesting internal debate in the coming days over whether to share power with Sinn Féin in Dublin City Hall.
The Green Party saw just a moderate increase in its vote, but this doesn't compensate for the loss of at least one, and possibly both, European Parliament seats and both of its representatives on Dublin City Council. Party figures yesterday were questioning aspects of their campaign, such as the decision to use substantial numbers of posters containing still-life images of tomatoes and the like, rather than mugshots of their candidates. In an election dominated by talk of giving the Government a kick, the Greens' solid platform concentrating on local issues didn't catch the public imagination.
Independents, standing on a host of different issues, have done well as they tend to do in local government elections. Among the most striking features of these elections was the voter turnout, at 57 per cent up seven points from the equivalent 1999 elections. Party activists speculated at the weekend that this was down to an enthusiasm to give the Government parties a good kick, coupled with an appeal by Sinn Féin to young and working class sections of the electorate who often don't bother to vote.
The ousting of the two-term coalition is now a real possibility. Of course the handling of the economy didn't feature as an issue in this campaign. In a General Election campaign it will, and the alternative will have to convince voters that it is equipped to manage the economy. But if Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party continue to move closer together, presenting themselves as a viable alternative and drawing up a joint programme closer to the next General Election, they will pose a major challenge to the Fianna Fáil/PD attempt to win a third term.
However, with Fianna Fáil now at risk of losing Dáil seats and Sinn Féin having a high chance of making major Dáil gains, another arithmetic possibility has come clearly into view: A Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin coalition. It seems unthinkable that this could happen so soon, with the IRA weapons issue still unresolved, and with the IRA, or elements of it, still involved in illegal activity.
But there are up to three years to go before the next General Election and there is plenty of time for further development in the peace process. The election results will confirm to Sinn Féin not only that it can become a substantial political force in the Republic, but that it will be a part of Government one day if it manages to convince the other parties that it has irrevocably left its war behind and rid itself of weapons.
So it was a great day out for Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, a mediocre one for Labour, a disappointment for the Green Party and the PDs and, of course, a disaster for Fianna Fáil. The 29th Dáil now moves into a new phase with the prospect of a real choice being on offer to voters at the end of it.