Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent, examines the options in a Cabinet reshuffle.
Few know what the Taoiseach will do, and he may not have finalised his new Cabinet in his own mind. He has spoken to a small number of Ministers but after their meetings, most of these were none the wiser.
Several of those tipped for significant moves were yesterday obviously tense and nervous. It appears very few people will be told until the last minute.
Those in and close to the Government now believe that there will be three new Ministers, at least 10 Departments with new Ministers, with just four or even fewer staying in their present portfolios.
First, the firm predictions: Joe Walsh and Michael Smith will not be in the Cabinet. Therefore, with Charlie McCreevy off to Europe, there will be three vacancies.
The three will almost certainly be picked from four: Mary Hanafin, Dick Roche, Brian Lenihan and Willie O'Dea.
Hanafin is seen as the banker among these three. Despite the Taoiseach's view that Willie O'Dea could do more to bring in a third Fianna Fáil TD in his Limerick East constituency, the fact that two departing Ministers are from Munster will probably see the ambitious Minister of State elevated to Cabinet after several past disappointments. The Taoiseach took a long time to promote Lenihan and Roche to junior ministerial rank, so there must be a question over whether he would make them Cabinet Ministers just two years later.
However, Dick Roche may have allayed whatever reservations the Taoiseach had about him during an impressive term as the Minister of State responsible for European Affairs which took in the successful Nice Treaty referendum and Ireland's EU presidency. If so this would see Lenihan losing out, although the Chief Whip job would remain a possibility.
Brian Cowen's move to Finance will confirm him as the Taoiseach's favourite and most trusted.
Should a leadership contest in Fianna Fáil arise in the next few years Brian Cowen will go into it having been Minister for Labour, Transport Energy and Communications, Health, Foreign Affairs and Finance, and he is still only 44.
Mary Harney is moving. There was strong speculation yesterday that she would take the brave option of becoming the next Minister for Health.
There remains a possibility that she could become Minister for Transport. However, earlier speculation that she would become Minister for Education now appears to have gone. She is understood to have considered the option of taking the Education job, adding elements of science policy from her current portfolio in Enterprise and Employment.
She said yesterday she was not in favour of such a change in departmental responsibilities, and it is believed she has lost interest in the Education job.
The Taoiseach needs his next Minister for Health to present the much sought after "caring" image over the next two years.
And a series of good news announcements and openings is planned, while long awaited reforms will at last come on stream.
Putting Mary Harney - the tough talking head of the reform and value for money brigade - into the Department of Health would also suggest the Government is serious about reform. It would be a brave move for the Tánaiste, and would help make the reshuffle appear radical. Mary Hanafin, a former teacher, is tipped for the Education post.
Dermot Ahern may be keen to see Mary Harney going to Health because if she does not want it, this could thwart his desire to go to Foreign Affairs. Dermot Ahern is regarded by the Taoiseach as being reliable and experienced in relation to Northern Ireland, and has an interest in and good knowledge of foreign policy issues.
He is believed to want the job. But he is also one of the able people seen as capable of taking on the health portfolio. And should he not get Foreign Affairs, Dick Roche as a newcomer to the Cabinet cannot be ruled out for Iveagh House.
Alternatively, some Fianna Fáil insiders maintain that John O'Donoghue could get the job.
John O'Donoghue is expected to move somewhere and is seen as a possible Minister for Agriculture as well. So is Noel Dempsey. However, if the Taoiseach wants his Cabinet to look fresh and imaginative (he does), some say he may consider the current Minister for Social Welfare, Mary Coughlan, for the post. She would be the first woman in the job, a young female in what is often seen as a post for a grey middle-aged male.
Freed at last from the Department christened Angola by Brian Cowen, Micheál Martin will be hoping for a Cabinet position of at least equal status.
Anyone who would like to be a leadership contender would want to have experience of an economic portfolio, and Enterprise and Employment, vacated by the Tánaiste, would be just the thing.
If he got it he would be the first Fianna Fáil Minister in that Department since Ray Burke held it in 1989. Transport is a possibility, although there is strong speculation that Séamus Brennan will stay put.
Any other available move - barring Foreign Affairs, which has other candidates seeking it - would be seen as a demotion.
Noel Dempsey will move from the Education portfolio but is expected to remain in Cabinet. Defence, Communications and Arts Sport and Tourism are possibilities.
Ministers most likely to stay put are Michael McDowell (Justice), Martin Cullen (Environment), Séamus Brennan (Transport) and Éamon Ó Cuív (Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs), although Michael McDowell is the only certainty not to move.
The promotion of Mary Hanafin would leave a vacancy for Chief Whip, not a full Minister but with a place at the Cabinet nevertheless.
Should Brian Lenihan not make it to Cabinet he is a possibility, although the Taoiseach's believed lack of affection for the Dublin West deputy could militate against his getting a role involving such close contact with the Taoiseach. Minister of State Ivor Callely is also a possibility.
Then there will be changes among junior ministers. It is the practice not to have Ministers and Ministers of State in the same Department from the one constituency.
So with Brian Cowen becoming Minister for Finance, his constituency colleague Tom Parlon is likely to move out of the job as Minister of State at that Department.
Speculation persists that the Taoiseach is considering raising the status of one junior ministerial post, allowing the holder to sit but not vote at Cabinet.
Possible newcomers to Minister of State ranks include Clare deputy Tony Killeen, Cavan Monaghan TD Brendan Smith, Jim Glennon of Dublin North and Billy Kelleher from Cork North Central.
A surprising name being mentioned is that of Kilkenny TD John McGuinness. He is a regular critic of the Government, but is in a Dáil constituency which is losing a Minister of State (Liam Aylward) to the European Parliament.
With Joe Walsh retiring, his Cork South West colleague Denis O'Donovan may become a Minister of State, as could Michael Smith's colleague Máire Hoctor in Tipperary North.
Limerick East deputy Peter Power is also mentioned, but if he becomes a Minister of State while his constituency colleague Willie O'Dea does not get elevation to Cabinet, party sources say O'Dea will have apoplexy.
Cabinet: the current line-up
Taoiseach: Mr Bertie Ahern
Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise and Employment: Ms Mary Harney
Minister for Finance: Mr Charlie McCreevy
Minister for Foreign Affairs: Mr Brian Cowen
Minister for Health: Mr Micheál Martin
Minister for Justice: Mr Michael McDowell
Minister for the Environment: Mr Martin Cullen
Minister for Education and Science: Mr Noel Dempsey
Minister for Transport: Mr Séamus Brennan
Minister for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources: Mr Dermot Ahern
Minister for Agriculture: Mr Joe Walsh
Minister for Defence: Mr Michael Smith
Minister for Social and Family Affairs: Ms Mary Coughlan
Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism: Mr John O'Donoghue Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs: Mr Éamon Ó Cuív
Attorney General: Mr Rory Brady SC