Armchair guide to the counts

Carlow-Kilkenny to Dun Laoghaire.

Carlow-Kilkenny to Dun Laoghaire.

Carlow- Kilkenny (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Liam Aylward (FF), John McGuinness (FF), MJ Nolan (FF), Phil Hogan (FG), Séamus Pattison (Lab)

Can Labour hold on to the seat being vacated by Séamus Pattison who is retiring after serving the constituency since 1961? And can Mary White of the Green Party finally make a breakthrough by taking a seat? Watch out for a strong Fine Gael challenge for an extra seat, led by the party's organisational guru, Phil Hogan.

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Cavan-Monaghan (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Dr Rory O'Hanlon (FF), Brendan Smith, Seymour Crawford (FG), Caoimhghin Ó Caoláin (SF), Paudge Connolly (Ind)

In reality this is a four-seater because Ceann Comhairle Dr Rory O'Hanlon is automatically returned as a TD. The main focus is on whether Independent Paudge Connolly can retain his seat and how successful or otherwise Fine Gael will be in winning back its second seat which it lost the last time.

Clare (4 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Tony Killeen (FF), Síle de Valera (FF), Pat Breen (FG), James Breen (Independent).

Breen, one of the FG "gene pool", is reported to be under pressure from Fine Gael's Joe Carey. Síle de Valera has retired and FF candidates Tony Killeen and Brendan Daly will battle it out for her seat. The performance of the Green Party's Brian Meaney will be interesting to watch.

Cork East (4 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Ned O'Keeffe (FF), Michael Ahern (FF),  David Stanton (FG), Joe Sherlock (Lab)

There could be an internal Rainbow battle here between Fine Gael and Labour. Labour's Joe Sherlock is retiring and his son, Seán, has joined former TD John Mulvihill on the party ticket. The first preference votes will give an indication if senator and former FG TD Paul Bradford is snapping at Labour's heels to win back his seat.

Cork North Central (4 seats, reduced from 5)

OUTGOING TDs:Noel O'Flynn (FF), Billy Kelleher (FF), Dan Wallace (FF), Bernard Allen (FG), Kathleen Lynch (Lab)

The constituency has been reduced by a seat to a four-seater, but with Fianna Fáil's Danny Wallace retiring, the other outgoing TDs are expected to retain their seats. Fine Gael is hoping to take a second seat and the candidate to watch is Allen's running mate Gerry Kelly, who polled 3,744 first preferences last time.

Cork North West (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Michael Moynihan (FF), Donal Moynihan (FF), Gerard Murphy (FG)

Arguably the most fascinating and hard-fought constituency, with four outgoing TDs among the candidates. Fianna Fáil's Batt O'Keeffe has moved from Cork South Central. Murphy has former party TD Michael Creed breathing down his neck. FF and FG will each take a seat and the result of the battle for the third is likely to reflect national trends.

Cork South Central (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Micheál Martin (FF), Batt O'Keeffe (FF), John Dennehy (FF), Simon Coveney (FG), Dan Boyle (GP)

Can Fine Gael win back the second seat it once held here, probably at the expense of Fianna Fáil? The party's hopes rest with Cllrs Deirdre Clune and Jerry Buttimer, Clune being the daughter of former TD and senior FG minister, Peter Barry.

Cork South West (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Joe Walsh (FF), Denis O'Donovan (FF), Jim O'Keeffe (FG)

With former FF minister Joe Walsh retiring, can veteran former FG TD PJ Sheehan win back his seat and rejoin O'Keeffe in the Dáil? Former Independent Christy O'Sullivan has joined Denis O'Donovan on the FF ticket, but there has been tension between the two. Watch for the performance of Skibbereen-based Senator Michael McCarthy of Labour, who could be in the running for a seat.

Donegal North East (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs: JimMcDaid (FF), Cecelia Keaveney (FF), Niall Blaney* (FF - elected as Independent)

One of the three outgoing TDs has to lose, given that they are all Fianna Fáil, Blaney having vacated the Independent benches to join the party in the summer of last year. Will Sinn Féin's Pádraig Mac Lochlainn, or Fine Gael's Senator Joe McHugh, take the third FF seat? There will be considerable interest in the performance of Independent Jimmy Harte, son of former long-serving TD Paddy Harte.

Donegal South West (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher (FF), Mary Coughlan (FF), Dinny McGinley (FG)

At whose expense will Sinn Féin councillor Pearse Doherty take a seat, as is expected? The early campaign consensus was that it would be McGinley, but he rallied strongly in the last week or so. So it could be the second FF seat which will fall to the SF challenge.

Dublin Central (4 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Bertie Ahern (FF), Dermot Fitzpatrick (FF), Joe Costello (Lab), Tony Gregory (Ind)

Will the Taoiseach take on board the advice he has given to his colleagues and help bring in an extra TD, either Mary Fitzpatrick or Cyprian Brady? Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald is challenging for a seat, but could her success be at the expense of veteran Independent Tony Gregory or Labour's Joe Costello? The transfers of Patricia McKenna of the Green Party and Pascal Donohoe of FG will be interesting.

Dublin Mid-West (4 seats, increased from 3)

OUTGOING TDs:John Curran (FF), Mary Harney (PD), Paul Gogarty (GP)

The constituency has been extended to a four-seater, opening up the possibility of a gain for Fine Gael or Labour. Will it be Fine Gael's Frances Fitzgerald, who lost her seat in Dublin South East last time, or Labour's Lucan-based Senator Joanna Tuffy?

Dublin North West (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Noel Ahern (FF), Pat Carey (FF), Róisín Shortall (Lab)

Sinn Féin's Dessie Ellis could take out any of the three TDs, with Carey appearing to be most vulnerable. The performance of the colourful, opinionated and energetic Fine Gael candidate Dr Bill Tormey will be interesting. Could he pull off a surprise?

Dublin North Central (3 seats, reduced from 4)

OUTGOING TDs:Seán Haughey (FF), Ivor Callely (FF), Richard Bruton (FG), Finian McGrath (Ind)

The reduction from four seats to three has put McGrath under pressure, but he has fought a strong campaign. Will it be enough to unseat one of the FF TDs, given that Bruton is a safe bet? Has Labour's Senator Derek McDowell done enough to return to the Dáil? If McGrath has a good first preference vote, he could make it on transfers.

Dublin North East (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Michael Woods (FF), Martin Brady (FF), Tommy Broughan (Lab)

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin have targeted this constituency. Can Fine Gael candidates, businessman Brody Sweeney or Cllr Terence Flanagan, take one of the Fianna Fáil seats? Has veteran TD and former minister Woods overstayed his welcome with the electorate, or is his colleague, Martin Brady, the vulnerable one? Sinn Féin's Larry O'Toole is also a candidate to watch.

Dublin North West (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Noel Ahern (FF), Pat Carey (FF), Róisín Shortall (Lab)

Sinn Féin's Dessie Ellis could take out any of the three TDs, with Carey appearing to be most vulnerable. The performance of the colourful, opinionated and energetic Fine Gael candidate Dr Bill Tormey will be interesting. Could he pull off a surprise?

Dublin South (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Séamus Brennan (FF), Tom Kitt (FF), Olivia Mitchell (FG), Liz O'Donnell (PD), Eamon Ryan (GP)

Can O'Donnell, fighting for her political life as never before, fight off a strong Fine Gael and Labour challenge for her seat? If FG makes the gain, it will be either former TD Alan Shatter or Jim O'Leary. Alternatively, it could be either Aidan Culhane or Alex White of Labour. The battle to head the poll is likely to be between Brennan and Ryan.

Dublin South Central (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Seán Ardagh (FF), Michael Mulcahy (FF), Gay Mitchell (FG), Mary Upton (Lab), Aengus Ó Snodaigh (SF)

The performances by Fine Gael and Labour bear particular scrutiny. With Gay Mitchell opting to stay as an MEP, can either of Fine Gael's candidates, Catherine Byrne or Anne Marie Martin, replace him? Or can Labour's Eric Byrne, a former TD, join Upton in the Dáil? There is the possibility that both could be successful, if one of the FF seats falls.

Dublin South East (4 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Eoin Ryan (FF), Michael McDowell (PD), Ruairí Quinn (Lab), John Gormley (GP)

Lucinda Creighton is expected to win back the Fine Gael seat here, probably heading the poll, but at whose expense? Could the unthinkable happen and McDowell, outgoing Tánaiste and Minister for Justice, be the one? Or could it be Gormley, Quinn or - another unthinkable - could Fianna Fáil find itself without a seat if either Chris Andrews or Jim O'Callaghan fails to replace Ryan, who has opted for Europe?

Dublin South West (4 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Conor Lenihan (FF), Charlie O'Connor (FF), Pat Rabbitte (Lab), Seán Crowe (SF)

Fine Gael's fortunes in the capital will be reflected in the performance of Senator Brian Hayes, who lost his seat last time having topped the poll in 1997. If Hayes is successful, will it be at the expense of Lenihan or O'Connor?

Dublin West (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Brian Lenihan (FF), Joan Burton (Lab), Joe Higgins (Ind)

The main interest here is the challenge from Fine Gael councillor Leo Varadkar, a local doctor who polled a phenomenal 4,894 first preferences in the Castleknock electoral area in the 2004 local elections to Fingal County Council. If he is to take a seat, it could be at Burton's expense, or, indeed, Higgins - despite his high profile - could be vulnerable.

Dún Laoghaire (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Mary Hanafin (FF), Barry Andrews (FF), Eamon Gilmore (Lab), Fiona O'Malley (PD), Ciarán Cuffe (GP)

Fine Gael will have to win at least one seat here if it is on the way back in Dublin. Of its three candidates, former TD and minister Seán Barrett is probably its best bet, and Fiona O'Malley could be the victim of any Fine Gael surge. Fine Gael and Labour have also targeted a second seat, which could put Andrews under pressure.