The race to succeed Kofi Annan as UN secretary general is hotting up, reports Deaglán de Bréadún in New York
Attempting to describe the many facets of his job as secretary general of the United Nations, the current incumbent, Kofi Annan, once remarked: "I am a cheerleader, I am a promoter, I am a salesman, I am a debt-collector, I am a father-confessor, and there are other aspects I still have to discover."
Annan got a standing ovation when he addressed the General Assembly this week. It was a reflection of his standing among delegates from a wide variety of countries with a broad range of political outlooks. The Ghanaian was jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize with the UN itself, as a body, in 2001. He will step down after two five-year terms on December 31st, and the succession race is underway with a vengeance.
The formal decision on who should become the eighth secretary general in the UN's 61-year history is made by the General Assembly of 192 member-states but, in reality, it is the 15- member Security Council which calls the shots, since it recommends only one candidate. And the Security Council is dominated by five permanent members, the so-called "P5" who were on the winning side in the second World War: China, France, Russia, the UK and the US. As a council source put it to me this week: "The UN is not a democratic body."
On the basis that the job rotates between regions on a 10-year basis, there is an informal consensus that it is Asia's turn this time.
In point of fact, Africa has held the position for the last 15 years and there hasn't been an Asian secretary general since U Thant of Burma-Myanmar served through the turbulent period of 1961-1971.
However, US ambassador to the UN John Bolton, who likes to put the cat among the pigeons, has argued against the view that there really has been geographical rotation, because three secretary generals have come from western Europe, two from Africa, one from Latin America, one from Asia and none from eastern Europe. He has also pointed out that there has never been a woman in the job and asked: "If you believe in geographic rotation, do you believe in gender rotation?"
THE FRONTRUNNER AT the moment is South Korean foreign minister Ban Ki-Moon. Two informal, secret polls carried out among Security Council members, the first one last July and the second earlier this month, had him in first place. A career diplomat, Ban served as Seoul's chief envoy to the world body from 2001 to 2003 and also acted as chief secretary to former UN General Assembly president Han Seung-soo.
So, for the present, it looks like Ban's the man, but don't go rushing to the bookie's just yet. He secured 14 favourable votes at the Security Council but, ominously, the sole dissenter is believed to be one of the P5, with opinion divided as to whether it is France or China.
"All five are playing this very close to their chest," according to a UN administrative source.
Ban was followed in the latest "straw poll" by India's Shashi Tharoor, with Dr Surakiart Sathirathai of Thailand in third place, Jordan's UN ambassador, Prince Zeid Al-Hussein, coming fourth, and former UN disarmament chief Jayantha Dhanapala, of Sri Lanka, in fifth place.
But the pace of events has quickened since that secret vote took place. For one thing, Dr Surakiart no longer holds the position of deputy prime minister of Thailand. He was accompanying prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra at the General Assembly when Thailand's military seized power last Tuesday.
China was seen as a supporter of Dr Surakiart's candidacy, but Beijing's man at the UN, Wang Guangya was reported as saying this week, with impressive oriental understatement, that "the situation in Thailand makes this issue more complicated".
It does indeed: Surakiart had been first into the field and had received valuable support from the 10-member Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean). The interim Thai government set up in the aftermath of the coup was said to be maintaining support for him. But one Security Council insider said Surakiart's candidacy had been "sunk by the coup".
In addition, a sixth name has been added to the list, that of Latvian president Vaira Vike-Freiberga, the only woman and non-Asian to surface so far. Interestingly, she was jointly nominated by the three Baltic states - Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania - who pointed out in a letter to the president of the Security Council that choosing their nominee "would be a tangible demonstration of the principle of gender equality".
There is clearly a push by the eastern European countries to increase their presence on the diplomatic stage but, as one diplomat from the former communist bloc put it to me this week: "The Russians would find it very difficult to back her and, even if they did, they would exact a huge price."
Meanwhile, a senior UN administrative source commented on her prospects of getting the job: "There's no way Putin would allow that to happen."
China, also a member of the P5, has repeatedly stressed the need for an Asian to be appointed this time round.
UN UNDER-SECRETARY general for public affairs Shashi Tharoor is a highly respected official at the world body's headquarters who is said to be "very close" to Kofi Annan. He came second in the latest straw poll and has government backing from his increasingly influential home country of India, where he is also well-known as a novelist. Described as "very brilliant", he has served a total of 28 years with the world body, but insiders say the Americans would see him as too closely bound up with the UN apparatus, which they wish to change and shake up.
Having the support of India could be a mixed blessing, as he would clearly be in the spotlight if there was yet another stand-off between India and Pakistan.
Jordan's UN ambassador, Prince Zeid Al-Hussein, who came fourth in the latest secret ballot, only entered the race on September 5th. The prince is a cousin of King Abdullah II and helped establish the International Criminal Court, the world's first permanent war crimes tribunal. Some might say Jordan is a Middle Eastern rather than a strictly Asian country, but if there is a dark horse in the race, it could be Prince Zeid, although UN sources say he is "rightly or wrongly" seen to be in the Anglo-American orbit.
The latest declared candidate is Afghanistan's former finance minister, Ashraf Ghani, who was nominated on Wednesday by his country's president, Hamid Karzai. Currently chancellor of Kabul University, Dr Ghani worked with the World Bank for 10 years in China, India and Russia.
In the secret ballots at the Security Council, members were asked to check one of three boxes for each candidate: "Encourage", "Discourage", and "No Opinion". This month's president of the Security Council, ambassador Adamantios Vassilakis of Greece, said council members would be asked this Thursday to decide whether to take another straw poll which might also differentiate between P5 members and the rest. They might even decide to have their final vote on the nominees. Alternatively, we might have to wait until November for the council to make its recommendation.
Anyone can join the race as long he or she is recommended by his government, so the final victor could be someone whose name has not been mentioned publicly so far. Even Tony Blair has been suggested by no less a person than Bill Clinton - it's an idea that would probably appeal to Gordon Brown.