The result of the US presidential election is bad news for the British prime minister, the BBC's world affairs editor has told students in University College Dublin.
John Simpson said a Kerry victory would have given Mr Tony Blair the chance of a fresh start, whereas he was now locked into his alliance with the Republicans for another four years. "I think Bush will be even more unpopular than before in Europe, and Blair will get all that unpopularity plus a large dollop of his own. I think he's in serious trouble now."
Mr Simpson was addressing a meeting of UCD's Literary and Historical Society, at which he became the first journalist to be awarded the 150-year-old society's honorary fellowship.
The veteran broadcaster said that when he returned to Iraq next month, he would travel - as he always did in trouble spots - on his Irish passport.
Possession of the passport made him feel "a bit safer", although he admitted he was "terrified" of the prospect of kidnap.
Mr Simpson said he was struck not only by the comparisons between Iraq and Vietnam, but by the repetition of history within Iraq itself.
In 1920, Britain was given the mandate to govern the territory by the League of Nations, yet despite having the world's best fighting force and the support of the international community, it had to begin negotiations on withdrawal after only six months.
"Except in Iraq, nobody mentions 1920," he said. "Nobody seems to be interested in history any more."
Mr Simpson defended the US networks for getting the presidential exit polls wrong again, saying the US may now be experiencing what Britain did in 1992, when many conservative voters disguised their views from pollsters.
"The only outfit to get the polls right this time was the one you wouldn't want to be right - Fox News," he said.
