An intense canvass of Dublin North will be carried out by all parties and candidates this weekend in an all-out bid for votes. The major parties will have a strong presence on the ground, with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, spearheading the Fianna Fail drive in a constituency tour tomorrow.
Mr Ahern is returning from Limerick East to participate in what Fianna Fail is claiming will be as big a canvass as it has launched anywhere in years, with Ministers, TDs, senators and party activists meeting voters after Masses and on the doorstep.
The party believes its candidate, Mr Michael Kennedy, can pip Labour's Senator Sean Ryan for the seat, which was made vacant by the departure of Fianna Fail's Mr Ray Burke from local and national politics.
Labour Oireachtas members and activists will also comb the constituency on behalf of Senator Ryan, believing he can significantly improve on his General Election first preference vote of 5,616 and secure enough transfers to be elected. Senator Ryan was a TD for the constituency from 1989 until his defeat in last year's General Election.
A closely-fought battle between Senator Ryan and Mr Kennedy for the seat is expected, with transfers likely to be crucial. With 19 candidates in the field, the destination of the transfers will be difficult to predict, but it is thought that Senator Ryan could do particularly well.
This is disputed by the Fianna Fail director of elections, the Minister for Social, Community and Family Affairs, Mr Ahern, who insisted yesterday his party's private polling had shown Mr Kennedy ahead on transfers. "We have had an excellent campaign running since January, and Mr Kennedy is now very well known to the electorate," he said.
All candidates are encountering considerable voter apathy, which is put down, in part, to a general disillusionment with politics and the nearness of the by-election to last year's General Election. This may lead to a low turnout, which it is thought could benefit Fianna Fail, given the effectiveness of its machine in getting voters out.
Senator Ryan agreed there was a good deal of apathy on the ground, although he believed it did not extend to local issues.
There is to be no formal votetransfer arrangement between Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats. The PD candidate, Mr Finian Fallon, said his party was seeking votes on basis of its policies, but added there was an emphasis on how well the party was working in government with Fianna Fail. Mr Ahern said there was an "acknowledgment" that both parties were working very well together and that the future stability of the Government was important.
A strong Oireachtas and party presence will join Fine Gael's Mr Philip Jenkinson, amid claims by the party that its campaign has gained considerable momentum in recent days. The Democratic Left leader, Mr Proinsias De Rossa, will join his party's candidate, Mr Joe Holohan, on the campaign trail tomorrow. Also stepping up their campaigns will be Ms Clare Daly, of the Socialist Party, Mr Paul Martin, of the Green Party, Mr Paul Donnelly, of Sinn Fein, as well as some of the Independent and single-issue candidates.
There will be no let-up in the intensity of the campaign until the polls close on Wednesday night. However, the Dail is not rising to facilitate canvassing in the two constituencies. This is because it is adjourning the following week due to St Patrick's Day and the foreign visits to be undertaken by the Taoiseach and several Government ministers.
