The coalition mission to 'destroy' the Mehdi army is fraught withdifficulties writes Tom Clonan
US Brig Gen Mark Kimmitt yesterday asserted that coalition forces in Iraq would "destroy" Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi army.
Kimmit's senior spokesperson, Daniel Senor, stated that this destruction was imminent and that it would be achieved through a series of "deliberate, precise and powerful" offensive operations.
By actively and aggressively engaging the second front opened by the Mehdi militia, Centcom is attempting to wrest the initiative from al-Sadr by brute force. For conventional military forces, it is difficult to balance brute force with precision - particularly in an urban environment.
The Mehdi army has deliberately exploited two vulnerable points within the US-led coalition's order of battle. The Shia militia have targeted the US 1st Armoured Division in the crowded slums of Sadr City and Al Showla in Baghdad.
The 1st Armoured along with its replacement division, the 1st Cavalry Division, will find it difficult to use its heavy tanks and armour among the narrow alleyways and side streets of these heavily populated areas. As has been amply demonstrated in the neighbouring Sunni towns of Fallujah and Ar Ramadi, main battle tanks such as the US M1 Abrams, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Humvees and even helicopters are especially susceptible to RPG and small-arms attack when deployed in narrow city streets.
In such an environment, heavily armoured army units such as the 1st Cavalry are ill equipped to counter the highly mobile Hizbullah-style attack being mounted by al-Sadr's Mehdi army. In such circumstances, no matter how restrained the US response, civilian casualties are likely to be high.
Al-Sadr's militia has also exploited weaknesses in Centcom's Polish-led "Multi National Division - Central South' (MND-CS) area of operations in Shia-dominated central Iraq. In this area, the Mehdi militia managed to seize control of the key cities of Najaf, Karbala and Kut from Spanish and Ukrainian troops respectively.
They also managed to temporarily seize control of the centre of Nasiriyah from Italian troops under the command of the British Multinational Division - South East (MND-SE).
Originally secured at some cost by US marines this time last year, these cities will be high on Centcom's list for recapture.
Reports that Muqtada al-Sadr has headquartered himself in the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf represent a major challenge to the leadership of Centcom at this point in the current crisis. Centcom will be loath to conduct a ground or air assault on this particular Shia shrine for fear of the reaction such an attack might bring about. Domestically, within Iraq, such an attack would almost certainly provoke a widespread popular uprising among the Shia population - one of al-Sadr's principle objectives. As Shia Islam's holiest shrine, such an attack would also inflame international Shia sentiment.
In their attempts to detain al- Sadr alive, and in order to deny the Mehdi army a martyred leader, the US military may have to resort to negotiation to secure his arrest. Centcom will be mindful of the outcome of previous attempts to detain high value human targets alive - Uday and Qusay Hussein being a case in point. The use of special forces in some form of direct action operation designed to detain al-Sadr alive would also prove difficult, if not impossible.
While located within the mosque in Najaf, al-Sadr is also relatively immune to an air or missile attack of the type used by Israel to assassinate Hamas resistance leader Sheikh Yassin.
Based on these factors, and based on Centcom's stated intention to destroy the Mehdi army and to detain its leadership through the use of offensive operations, it is difficult to know how such an outcome can be achieved without civilian losses.
Helicopter-mounted Hellfire missiles and Boeing M230 chain guns along with 120 mm rounds fired from US main battle tanks are indiscriminate weapons when used in a war against an enemy deployed among the civilian population.
Even the use of US small arms - M-16 rifles and M-9 pistols carried by US marines and infantry - would inevitably give rise to civilian deaths in towns such as Najaf, Karbala and Kut. These population centres numbering approximately 600,000, 50,000 and 400,000 respectively - and currently swollen with Shia pilgrims - could become major recruiting grounds for al-Sadr if Centcom misjudges the tempo of its operations in the coming days.
Based on the timing, co-ordination and symbolic effect of the Mehdi army's strategy, al-Sadr may yet realise his vision of a popular Shia uprising.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer. He currently lectures in the School of Media, DIT.
