Good morning – depending on what time you read this, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) may already be meeting in the first major set piece of a busy day. It should mark another step in the long, slow march towards reopening society – so what is in store?
Once the Nphet meeting finishes, senior members of the team, led by Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan, will go to Government Buildings and brief Coalition leaders and senior Ministers who make up the Cabinet Covid subcommittee.
It’s a well-worn path at this stage, so expect the same pattern of punditry backed up by an increasing volume of leaks as the evening draws in. By the end of the day, we should have a fair idea of what the next stage of reopening looks like.
Indeed, you could make an argument that we know much of it already: the Government will focus on fully reopening construction, the phased return of non-essential retail with an emphasis on click-and-collect in the first instance, recommencement of personal services like hairdressing and religious services, and the reopening of museums, galleries and libraries.
Precisely what happens when within the month of May remains to be seen, with a phasing in of different steps over the month likely.
It’s possible the Government may play a wild card and surprise people with an unexpected tweak to the rules. Indeed, last night’s parliamentary party meeting saw Micheál Martin subtly add “outdoor sport” to the above list, so don’t be surprised to see moves towards adult team-based activities added to the list.
He also gravely intoned to his parliamentary party members that he had heard their message on parity of treatment for “wet” pubs and gastropubs, and there could be movement here, as the emphasis shifts from nourishment to ventilation. From fare to air, if you like.
Indeed, we could be seeing the beginning of the end of the €9 meal – and even if Covid may be with us forever, perhaps we could consign the “wet pub” moniker to the dustbin of history. However, reopening of this sector is some weeks off.
There has been a drumbeat of dissatisfaction with the ban on intercounty travel from Government TDs, and while immediate action on this is unlikely, Government sources were heavily hinting action in June as part of a more detailed plan for the summer.
The Taoiseach edged some way down this road last night, telling parliamentary colleagues that domestic tourism will return in June, and he flagged a plan on hotels, B&Bs, guest houses and self catering and mobile homes. A plan for outdoor dining, intercounty travel this summer and, later, indoor dining is expected. The June bank holiday could prove a hinge moment here.
Don’t rule out a couple of unexpected measures in the next few days – the CMO was enthusiastic about the benefits of vaccination last week, so could the Government and Nphet add to the “vaccine bonus”?
Doing so would be a delicate political balancing act, with many hundreds of thousands of people over 50 now likely to receive the AstraZeneca jab, meaning it will be months before they are fully vaccinated.
The rumble of dissatisfaction among those in receipt of this vaccine may grow, especially given its low efficacy against the South African variant, and the Government would do well to think closely about how to see this off at the pass without undermining the (stuttering) momentum or purpose of the wider programme. There will be tricky choices ahead on vaccine policy, and political costs to missteps.
However, immediate or major changes to the structure of the vaccine programme, similar to the reorganisation on age grounds seen last month that led to backlash from unions, must be unlikely following a harum-scarum month that saw multiple course changes.
The Government will be hoping the dramatic reversals that have proved to be more a feature than a bug of the vaccine rollout will recede, giving it a slim chance of meeting its 82 per cent target for first shots in a sprint finish in June.
With yet more cancellations of vaccines due for delivery, and more policy hairpin turns yesterday, that seems like wishful thinking.
Jack Power covers the latest developments here, while our lead article deals with all this, and more.
As our political correspondent Jennifer Bray observed pithily yesterday, Tuesday was quite the day for political news, even besides Covid developments, with the surprise resignation of former minister for housing Eoghan Murphy, a putsch against DUP leader Arlene Foster and the charging of a former Sinn Féin councillor with murder.
Jennifer runs the rule over the runners and riders in the forthcoming byelection in Dublin Bay South, a constituency that, despite its largely genteel shading, has proven to be a political battleground and a political graveyard in the past.
Amid the relentless news flow, there was a significant, and pleasant, moment yesterday when Minister for Justice Helen McEntee confirmed she was finishing work to begin maternity leave as she and her husband await the arrival of their first child.
However, there’s a serious policy edge to the development – as Ms McEntee reminded people during her last public engagement for six months, the policy gymnastics that have enabled her to take maternity leave are rooted in a system that is badly in need of structural reform.
Freya McClements is writing on how Arlene Foster's leadership is hanging by a thread here.
Our front page line-up is completed by Simon Carswell's latest update to the saga of vaccinations at the Coombe hospital.
Best reads
Simon parses those Coombe developments here.
Jennifer Bray's analysis of the shifting political sands in Dublin Bay South is here.
Meanwhile, on the opinion pages, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar is extolling the virtues of EU-Canada trade, which should stoke the embers of division within the Green Party on this issue.
Speaking of Dublin Bay South, Michael McDowell has a thoughtful piece about the unbreakable links between land, society and politics in Ireland, and how fundemantal shifts are under way.
Playbook
There are private meetings of the committees on social protection, health, the Irish language, public accounts and disability matters.
Sinn Féin’s residential tenancies (student rents and other protections) Bill will be taken during Private Members’ Business at 10am, followed by Leaders’ Questions from Sinn Féin, Labour, the Regional Group and the Rural Independent Group at midday.
Five motions without debate will follow on street furniture, issues affecting the Traveller community and the restoration of Bills on island fisheries and autism spectrum disorders, before Taoiseach’s Questions at lunchtime.
Government business continues in the afternoon, with the Planning and Development, Heritage and Broadcasting Amendment Bill shortly before 2pm, and the second stage of both Criminal Justice Amendment and Climate Action Bills at 4pm.
Catherine Martin, Minister for Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media, takes oral questions at 8pm.