The British and Irish governments are resigned to defeat in today's crunch vote on decommissioning at a plenary session of the Stormont talks. After meetings of the Ulster Unionist Party's MPs and senior officers, sources last night confirmed it would join the DUP and the UK Unionist Party in rejecting the British-Irish formulae for addressing the arms issue alongside political negotiations.
But London and Dublin sent a determined message that their agreed timetable would not be disrupted, and that substantive negotiations on the North's future will begin on September 15th, in whatever form.
The Rev Ian Paisley emerged from a meeting with Mr Tony Blair yesterday to pronounce the current talks process "dead in the water". It is accepted in both capitals that, barring a dramatic change in the Ulster Unionist position by September 15th, an alternative structure for negotiations will have to be put in place.
While both governments will make every effort between now and then to preserve the current round-table format, Irish sources confirmed that detailed contingency plans would be developed during the summer adjournment.
While no definitive plan yet exists, a process of bilateral, trilateral and multilateral negotiations appears the likeliest alternative.
Mr Blair is expected to "touch base" with Mr David Trimble ahead of this afternoon's vote. However, the British Prime Minister has already told Mr Trimble no deal is possible, in the time available, on a package of measures proposed by Mr Trimble at their Downing Street meeting on Monday afternoon.
Discounting the expected defeat in advance, a Downing Street spokesman told The Irish Times: "We'll lose the vote and press on."
What mattered, he said, was that Mr Trimble "remains positive in his approach". And he suggested "other things might happen" which could facilitate a softening in the UUP approach to decommissioning.
Dr Mo Mowlam, the Northern Ireland Secretary, insisted there were "a lot of other options" to be considered over the summer.
But there is no suggestion that Mr Blair will attempt to meet Mr Trimble's central demand, that Sinn Fein be required to give a commitment to achieve actual decommissioning, and face the threat of expulsion from the negotiations if it failed to do so. Key nationalist sources last night said this demand could ultimately force the end of the ceasefire and spark even greater violence. The request for "clarification" of the grounds for expulsion from talks was one of six issues raised by Mr Trimble with Mr Blair on Monday.
It is understood Mr Trimble also called for a statement from the Irish Government making clear its "expectation" that decommissioning would occur during the talks process, and suggested the proposed independent commission and dedicated sub-committee should have proposed decommissioning schemes in place by September 15th.
Mr Trimble also asked for "a package of confidence-building measures designed to demonstrate Northern Ireland's place within the United Kingdom" and suggested that "the principle of consent" should be the first item to be agreed in any talks process involving Sinn Fein.
London will almost certainly try to meet Mr Trimble on limited confidence- building measures.
The British Prime Minister has said that although the voting down of the decommissioning proposals would be a setback, "it would not be the end of the process". Writing in today's Sun newspaper, Mr Blair said: "I continue to believe that the forces pushing us towards a settlement are stronger than those that drive us apart".