Cutting as much as ten days – 40 per cent – off the sea journey from western Europe to Japan has been made possible in the last couple of years, courtesy of global warming, by record sea-ice melt in the Arctic Ocean. With the result that in the first half of this year Russia has been able to approve the transit along its coast through its Northern Sea Route, previously the "Northeast Passage", of some 204 ships, up from only 46 ships last year, and just four two years earlier.
It’ll be a few years yet before the Arctic routes are commercially viable, shipping sources say, not least because the latter route is limited to ships with a draft of 41 feet or less – a ship carrying 2,000 containers might make the voyage more efficiently, but the biggest ships will still have to rely for the 33-day Rotterdam-Kobe trip on the Suez Canal. (The Northwest Passage is even shallower.)
South Korea’s Maritime Institute estimates, however, that the Northern Sea Route, which is likely to be open for eight months of the year within the decade, could account for up to a quarter of Asia-Europe trade by 2030, saving hundreds of millions on shipping company fuel bills. The route also has the added attraction of taking shipping away from pirate- and politics-infested Middle East.
The surge in Arctic shipping is prompting concerns among environmentalists, already campaigning against the expansion of mineral exploration in the Arctic, over safety and accidents – there are few resources to track ships or mark safe routes in the far north.
The bright new prospects for the exploitation of the region have also led to a new interest in the work of the eight-member-state Arctic Council where, so far very limited, attempts have been made by states with Arctic territory to agree on collective management programmes for the region. At the last meeting of the council, drawn like moths to a light, six new distictnly un-Arctic states were granted observer status – China, India, Italy, Japan, Singapore and South Korea – while the EU is also waiting in the wings. If only their interest was environmental!