THE BALKANS:The UN envoy seeking to settle the Kosovo conflict between Serbia and ethnic Albanians will tell the UN Security Council next week for the first time that independence is the only viable option for the province in the southern Balkans.
Former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari, who has been vainly seeking to mediate a deal between the Serbian government and ethnic Albanian leadership for more than a year, is to present his settlement terms to the security council in New York on Monday. He will say eight years of international administration of Kosovo has to be ended, that the province cannot return to Serbian sovereignty, and that the time has come to settle Kosovo's status.
However, Russia has threatened to veto the plan if it was opposed by any party. "If there are attempts to impose on the Serbs something which is unacceptable to them, that would be unacceptable to us as well," Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, told the Russian parliament.
In his report to the council, Mr Ahtisaari is expected to go much further than he did a month ago when his 58-page settlement terms for the province were unveiled. The settlement proposed to put Kosovo on the path to statehood by establishing all the attributes of independence, but the document failed to use the words independence or sovereignty.
In his report next week, details of which were leaked to the French newspaper Le Monde, Mr Ahtisaari is to state that continued ambiguity over Kosovo's status will jeopardise peace and stability in Kosovo and in the Balkans generally, while independence is the "only guarantee" against that danger. He is to insist that his plan provides the "foundations for a future independent Kosovo which is viable, durable and stable". Independence would be supervised by an EU mission, which is to replace the UN administration in Kosovo, buttressed by Nato peacekeepers.
The UN envoy, with US and broad European support, believes there is no point in carrying on the talks - meaning that his settlement needs to be imposed. A security council resolution is needed to implement the Ahtisaari plan. A Russian veto could trigger an international crisis and renewed conflict in the Balkans.
Olli Rehn, the EU commissioner for enlargement, yesterday delivered a stark warning to Moscow. "If the security council fails to agree, there will be instability and even chaos in the region," he said. "Europe will have to pay the price, not Russia, not the US." - ( Guardian service)