The sixth election to the European Parliament was held on Friday, June 11th, 1999. At that time a total of 41 candidates contested 15 seats across four constituencies.
The result saw Fianna Fáil capture six seats with 39 per cent of the vote, while Fine Gael returned four MEPs from its 25 per cent share of first preferences.
The two Green Party incumbents were returned, as was Pat Cox in Munster. Proinsias De Rossa was elected in Dublin, while Dana Rosemary Scallon caused a major upset by polling over 50,000 first preferences in Connacht-Ulster, taking a seat on the final count.
Five years later to the day, next June 11th, the Republic's electorate will return to the polls to decide upon the fate of 44 candidates chasing a reduced number of 13 European Parliament seats.
While three of the constituency names have changed, their geographical make-up has remained the same with the exception of Co Clare, which now rests within the new North West Euro constituency.
Respondents interviewed for today's poll were presented with a simulated European election ballot paper, and were encouraged to allocate their first, second, third, etc., preferences to the candidates of their choice. Analysis of the survey data therefore allows us identify not only the likely first-preference vote each candidate would have secured if the election had been held this week, but also the likely transfer patterns between the various individuals.
Table I shows the first preference voting intentions of the respondents interviewed.
Dublin
With both Mary Banotti (Fine Gael) and Niall Andrews (Fianna Fáil) retiring from the European Parliament, the key questions have been which of the two Fianna Fáil candidates will retain that party's seat; whether Fine Gael can recover from its general election drubbing in the capital and hold its seat by way of a single-candidate strategy; and whether Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin can snatch Patricia McKenna's Green Party seat.
With regard to the Labour Party, it has always seemed likely that Proinsias De Rossa would retain its single Dublin seat, with only an outside chance of a gain by Ivana Bacik.
If the European elections had been held this week, Ivana Bacik's elimination on the third count would have resulted in the election of Gay Mitchell and the unassailable positioning of both Royston Brady and Proinsias De Rossa for the second and third seats.
Sitting MEP Patricia McKenna would then have been eliminated, with Eoin Ryan taking the final seat.
There is still a lot left to play for in this constituency, however. With Ryan currently on 13 per cent of first preferences, McDonald on 11 per cent and McKenna on 10 per cent, any one of those candidates could come through on polling day to take the fourth seat.
Indeed, it would appear that whichever of those three candidates is ahead on the first count is likely to emerge victorious.
North West
The media focus in this constituency has been on the battle between Seán Ó Neachtain and Jim McDaid for what many have assumed will be a single Fianna Fáil seat. Given there were fewer than 8,000 votes between Marian Harkin and Dana Rosemary Scallon by the final count in 1999, there has also been speculation that Harkin could well take the third seat from Scallon this time around.
Today's poll indicates that we have a fascinating contest on our hands. Based on these figures, Scallon is in serious danger of losing her seat, sitting on just 7 per cent of all first preferences.
Under such a scenario, Scallon's elimination on the second or third count would position Harkin in second place behind Ó Neachtain, but marginally ahead of Jim Higgins and McDaid.
Circa 40 per cent of Madeline Taylor Quinn's second preferences would then transfer to Higgins when she exits on the next count, bringing him almost level with Ó Neachtain.
With a quarter of Pearse Doherty's transfers going to McDaid and another fifth to Marian Harkin, all four remaining candidates would be almost inseparable by the fifth count or so, with each sitting on around 20 per cent of the vote.
Although almost impossible to call at this stage, the situation three weeks from the election indicates that Higgins and Ó Neachtain are best positioned to take the first two seats, with Harkin favourite to take the third ahead of McDaid.
South
With Pat Cox and John Cushnahan retiring from the European Parliament, along with a reduction from four to three seats, this constituency has always had the potential to throw up a surprise.
While common wisdom would have it that both Gerry Collins and poll-topper Brian Crowley should retain their seats, the presence of Kathy Sinnott as a potential rallying point for an anti-establishment vote is likely to have had Collins in particular worried.
As it transpires, Crowley and Collins are currently sitting on almost two full quotas between them. The Labour Party will be disappointed with Brendan Ryan's initial showing at just 5 per cent of all first preferences. If all things were to remain equal between now and June 11th, Crowley, Coveney and Collins would be elected.
In order to mount a serious challenge for the final seat, Kathy Sinnott will need to increase her share of first preferences from 9 per cent to around the mid-teens. In planning her strategy, Sinnott will be aware that the final pre-election polls of 1999 indicated that neither Dana Rosemary Scallon nor Marian Harkin had much chance of election in Connacht Ulster as Independents, only for them to take 31 per cent of all votes cast on election day. Another constituency to watch closely over the coming weeks.
East
It has always been assumed that with a reduction in seats from four to three, Mary White of the Green Party was facing an uphill struggle to retain the seat won by Nuala Ahern in 1994.
The quota in this constituency is 25 per cent, with both Avril Doyle and Liam Aylward therefore currently well positioned to take a seat apiece.
If these figures are replicated on June 11th transfers from the early elimination of Mary White would likely nudge John Dwyer of Sinn Féin ahead of Séamus Kirk of Fianna Fáil, with Kirk subsequently eliminated on the third count or thereabouts.
With two thirds of Kirk's second preferences transferring to Liam Aylward, Aylward would then make it home with a comfortable surplus, the distribution of which would marginally strengthen Peter Cassells' positioning in relation to Máiréad McGuinness.
Avril Doyle is then likely to have taken the second seat, with Cassells taking the third without reaching the quota.
In summary therefore, one Fianna Fáil and one Fine Gael seat are certain in this constituency, with Cassells of Labour closest to taking the third. McGuinness of Fine Gael can by no means be ruled out at this stage however, with Dwyer of Sinn Féin likely to make a credible showing.
Local Elections
In 1999, local government elections were held on the same day as the European elections.
Fianna Fáil candidates garnered 39 per cent of votes of all first-preference votes in city and county council elections.
Meanwhile, while capturing 25 per cent of all Euro election first preferences, Fine Gael performed more impressively at a local level, winning a 28 per cent local authority first preference showing.
Table II illustrates the first preference vote achieved by each party in the 1999 city and county council elections, along with the adjusted party support figures (based on previous election results) from today's poll.
Based upon these findings it seems likely that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will suffer losses at a local level, although Fine Gael would point out that 1999 was an exceptionally positive election for it. Labour will gain, while Sinn Féin is set to make a significant breakthrough.
Summary
In summary, Fianna Fáil is certain to return one MEP in each of the four Euro constituencies and is currently favourite to take the second in both the South constituency and Dublin.
With McDaid a possibility for a seat in North West, the party, which is registering at just 32 per cent support at a local election level, is still in a position to hold its existing six seats, with an outside chance of adding another one. Fine Gael and Labour will also be pleased with today's polls.
At a national level, Fine Gael is currently attracting 26 per cent of all first preferences for the European election.
Its core vote overall is up three points on last February's poll.
The party seems certain of one Euro seat in each constituency, and has a fighting chance of a fifth by way of Máiréad McGuinness in the East.
The party will probably lose seats at a local level, on the basis of its strong 1999 election.
Labour too has reasons for optimism. In addition to Proinsias De Rossa, the party is in pole position to return a second MEP in the East.
Meanwhile, a significant improvement on its 10 per cent share of local election votes in 1999 seems certain, by as much as 50 per cent if today's findings are borne out.
Sinn Féin will do well locally, laying the groundwork for the next general election where it will be hoping to increase upon its existing number of five TDs.
The PDs are of course not running any candidates for Europe, but seem likely to make some local election gains at this stage, as will the Green Party.
Finally, it should be stressed that this poll was taken a full three weeks in advance of the elections.
Only now are candidates' campaigns in full motion, with the third and fourth seats in all four Euro constituencies still to be won.