FF left with ground to make up

Analysis: party strategies: Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's dawn run to Áras an Uachtaráin to formally dissolve the Dáil was a bizarre…

Analysis: party strategies:Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's dawn run to Áras an Uachtaráin to formally dissolve the Dáil was a bizarre and unprecedented opening to the election campaign for the 30th Dáil.

His refusal to take any questions at a press conference later in the day to launch the Fianna Fáil campaign indicated that the strategy this time around will be very different from the ultra-confident "showtime" election of 2002.

Just how different the approach will be was underlined by the content of the Taoiseach's short statement. "No one knows what the outcome of this election will be. The people have a real choice and two very different alternatives before them," he told reporters.

It is not the Fianna Fáil way to admit that there is an alternative government on offer with a chance of winning the election. It shows that Mr Ahern is keenly aware that he has a real battle on his hands to win his coveted three-in-a-row. It is now very clear that this election is not going to be the walkover some of his supporters were expecting up to very recently.

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The theme of the yesterday's press conference, "Now, The Next Steps" was a reworking of his ardfheis slogan. The campaign strategy will focus on the need to protect prosperity but it will also emphasise promises made in the ardfheis speech, with a few extra added for spice.

The party will outline today its economic policy and the full manifesto will be published on Thursday. The Taoiseach will be in Dublin for the first full day of the campaign but in the coming three weeks his election tour will take in every part of the country.

Last week's Irish Times poll showed that Mr Ahern is still the most popular political leader in the country and the party will try and capitalise on that by getting him to every corner of the State to shake hands with as many people as possible.

Of course he will also be heading North on May 8th to witness the establishment of the new powersharing executive, and on May 16th he will be in London to address the joint houses of parliament.

Interestingly, Mr Ahern pledged yesterday that if he was returned to government he would not only continue working for lasting peace but for unity as well. He is obviously conscious of the threat Sinn Féin poses for Fianna Fáil during this campaign.

Party strategists accept there is a swing against Fianna Fáil but they hope that the advantages of having incumbent TDs who have worked hard for their constituents will be sufficient to hold the line. Fine Gael have the opposite problem in the campaign. There is a tide in favour of the party but need to ensure it is sufficient to net the extra seats required to form a government.

The party strategy is to keep the message simple with a continuing focus on the contrast for a better Ireland announced by Mr Kenny at his ardfheis. The five core pledges made in the course of that speech relating to specific improvements in the health service, policing and public services will be emphasised again and again.

Mr Kenny will be campaigning throughout the country in a determined attempt to match the Taoiseach. He took off on the campaign trail in Dublin South East and Dún Laoghaire yesterday and will be campaigning hard across the country.

While Mr Kenny still has some way to go to rival the Taoiseach in terms of popularity, his party strategists believe his likeability and good humour will translate into benefits on the campaign trail.

Fianna Fáil will focus on Mr Kenny's relative lack of experience in high office. Government sources are confident that Mr Ahern will win any television debate with the Fine Gael leader but Mr Kenny has surprised them before and may do so again. If anything the Fine Gael-Labour alternative government is going into the election campaign in a stronger position than Fianna Fáil. Avoiding mistakes rather than scoring spectacular hits on the Government will be Mr Kenny's priority.

Labour leader Pat Rabbitte faces a slightly different challenge because his party is becalmed in the polls. While he has a strong candidate team around the country he needs to grab the public imagination to ensure that Labour comes back with more than 20 TDs in the next Dáil.

Mr Rabbitte is campaigning on the five commitments for change he spelled out in his conference speech. They include more hospital beds, more gardaí, and enabling more people to buy a home.

For the first time since 1969 Labour is contesting every constituency in the country and Mr Rabbitte will be touring the country to try and get his message across.

Michael McDowell and the PDs will have a tighter focus on their niche in the political spectrum. The party manifesto launched yesterday, focused on Mr McDowell's seven key pledges to the electorate.

He has set himself the target of increasing the party's number of TDs to 12 and while few give him a chance of coming anywhere near that, he reminded reporters at his press conference yesterday that nobody gave the party any chance of doubling its Dáil representation to eight last time out.

The Green Party will fight this election on a much bigger scale than ever before. The party will have candidates in 36 out of the 43 constituencies and party leader Trevor Sargent will embark on a national campaign.

The emphasis will naturally be on Green-agenda issues that the party have campaigned on since their foundation. They will hope to capitalise on worldwide concern about climate change and the growing focus on issues like clean water and better planning.

The Greens took a decision to stay aloof from any pre-election coalition commitments and this could become an issue for them during the campaign if the tide begins to run strongly against Fianna Fáil. Labour sources have already been pointing out that a good performance by the Greens could put Fianna Fáil back in government.

Sinn Féin has opened the campaign with a blitz of posters featuring party president Gerry Adams and the message, "We Deliver". The campaign strategy will clearly be to feature Mr Adams and the historic developments of recent years. However, it will not get into full swing until after the meeting of the Northern Assembly.

A critical battle in the election will be that between Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil for the working-class nationalist vote. Fianna Fáil will have its hands full fighting Fine Gael-Labour on one hand and Sinn Féin on the other.

FIANNA FÁIL:It is unusual for Fianna Fáil to admit that there is an alternative government on offer with a chance of winning the election.

LABOUR PARTY:Leader Pat Rabbitte faces a slightly different challenge because his party is becalmed in the polls.

GREEN PARTY:The Green Party will fight this election on a much bigger scale than ever before. The party will have candidates in 36 out of the 43 constituencies.

FINE GAEL:Party strategists believe that Enda Kenny's likeability and good humour will translate into benefits on the campaign trail.

PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS:Michael McDowell reminded reporters at his press conference yesterday that nobody gave the party any chance of doubling its seats last time out.

SINN FÉIN:One of the critical battles of the election will be that between Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil for the working class nationalist-leaning vote.

Stephen Collins

Stephen Collins

Stephen Collins is a columnist with and former political editor of The Irish Times