ANALYSIS:Brian Cowen's decision to proceed with the budget is not popular with the parliamentary party
THERE WAS a significant mood change in Fianna Fáil circles at Leinster House yesterday. The initial expectation following the Green Party’s declaration of intent to leave government was that Taoiseach Brian Cowen would adjourn to the Phoenix Park where he would ask President McAleese for an immediate dissolution of the Dáil.
Party insiders felt that all political logic suggested this would be the case. What was the point in pressing ahead with a budget that previously supportive Independents and recalcitrant backbenchers would be strongly inclined to vote against? In mid-afternoon, the Taoiseach called the Fianna Fáil Ministers to a meeting in the party rooms on the fifth floor of Leinster House. There was a very definite feeling that he was going to “pull the plug”, as one senior party source put it.
But at about 5.30pm word began to leak out that, like a former British head of government, the Taoiseach was not for turning. Instead of taking a trip to Áras an Uachtaráin, there was speculation he would go on the RTÉ Six One Newsto let the nation know he was going to tough things out.
In the event, it was a press conference at Government Buildings that he chose for his announcement that he was staying put. A high-level party figure was privately upset when he heard the news: “I don’t know how he cannot have an election.”
The thinking was that Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore should be left to cut billions of euro from the economy and take the flak for it instead of forcing Fianna Fáil TDs to go into an election with all the odium of social welfare cutbacks and other harsh measures. Fianna Fáil losses would be fewer than in the aftermath of a draconian budget.
All eyes will now be on this afternoon’s parliamentary party meeting.
“Oh Jesus, it will be rough,” said one inside source. Another predicted the gathering would be “fractious”. However, it may not be all that bad. There are no indications that any plausible rival for the party leadership is going to throw down the gauntlet to Cowen. Who would want to be leader of Fianna Fáil at the present juncture?
It is acknowledged at the highest levels of the party, though, that a general election would be relatively good for the party but not for the country. The instability generated by a dissolution of the Dáil would create even more economic problems.
There was also an expectation when the Taoiseach called his Ministers together that some of his colleagues were going to “talk to him very openly and upfront” about what are euphemistically known as “communications issues”. However, the blame for the communications debacle over the IMF bailout is not being laid at Cowen’s door but at that of the Department of Finance, which reportedly insisted on the po-faced formula that “technical” discussions were taking place at official level and the Government had made no application.
Nevertheless, Brian Lenihan is seen as the most obvious alternative party leader. But he has been loyal to the man who appointed him as Minister for Finance, reportedly urging discontented Dublin TDs who would have him throw his hat into the ring to “keep cool heads” and not be rushing into something they might regret. Micheál Martin’s name also features in speculation.
Disappointment rather than anger over Cowen’s stance is the best way to sum up the reaction from party insiders. It was pointed out that Fianna Fáil would be tasked with getting a budget passed which would be implemented after the election by Fine Gael and Labour, but that Fianna Fáil in opposition would have no credible arguments against a set of proposals they themselves had originated.
