Kildare South:One of the great shocks in the last election was the defeat of former Fine Gael leader Alan Dukes. It was widely expected that the former finance minister would top the poll but the tide went out and he was left stranded.
Many observers felt it was particularly unfair given what was seen as a patriotic stance by Dukes in 1987 when, in accordance with his "Tallaght Strategy", he offered support as opposition leader in the implementation of "responsible" economic policies by Fianna Fáil.
He could justly claim part of the credit for the subsequent "Celtic Tiger" boom but gratitude is a scarce commodity in politics and it did him little good at the polling booths in 2002.
Dukes is not standing this time around but the party has put up another well-known name in the person of Alan Gillis, formerly a Fine Gael MEP for Leinster and, prior to that, president of the Irish Farmers' Association.
He was added to the ticket after Cllr Richard Daly, principal of Athy Community College, was chosen at the party convention. There had been speculation that MEP Mairéad McGuinness might be on the ticket here, but she is standing in Louth instead.
It is nearly two months since a Red C poll in the Kildare Nationalistshowed outgoing Labour TD Jack Wall in the lead at 27 per cent, followed by Fianna Fáil Minister of State at the Department of Health Seán Power at 26 per cent, with his party colleague Seán O Fearghail at 17 per cent.
There were thin pickings for the main Opposition party, with Daly at 10 per cent and Gillis at 7 per cent. Gillis was trailing the Green Party's JJ Power (brother of the Minister of State) who was on 10 per cent. Sinn Féin's Threasa Bennitt was at 4 per cent but she has since withdrawn for personal reasons and Sinn Féin is concentrating its resources on Kildare North.
Since then, of course, the Fine Gael candidates have had plenty of time to knock on doors and generally put themselves about. But it was a very low base to start from and a sprint of Ronnie Delany proportions will be required to come from behind to finish in the first three.
Fianna Fáil's O Fearghail would appear on the face of it to be the most vulnerable of the outgoing TDs. A tide for Fine Gael could sweep him out and bring its man in, but the trend in the opinion polls suggests that Enda Kenny's party may have lost some momentum in the closing stages of the campaign.
Informed local sources believe O Fearghail, who has come up the hard way and works assiduously on the ground, could be first in for Fianna Fáil on this occasion. As one observer put it: "He's a real trier." The Fianna Fáil vote was evenly divided last time, with Power only 400 first preferences ahead of O Fearghail, who finally made it to the Dáil at his fifth attempt.
The chairman of the Progressive Democrats' parliamentary party, Sen John Dardis, has stepped aside in favour of Jane Mullins, from Newbridge, journalist and founder of Positive Action, the group which supports and represents women infected with Hepatitis C through the blood product Anti-D Immunoglobulin.
Whereas the forecasts of a PD wipeout are questionable, she will have a tough job squeezing ahead of the bigger parties in this three-seater bottleneck.
Whether or not Labour improves its position at national level, Jack Wall looks a good bet to retain his seat in this, the former bailiwick of the late Joe Bermingham, Labour TD and minister of state.
When Co Kildare was a single constituency, Wall could rely on a generous supply of transfers from party colleague Emmet Stagg. Although he was only a few hundred votes ahead of Dukes in 2002, Wall's strong GAA connections should stand to him: he's a former chairman of the county board and previously played hurling for the county.
With the closure of Kildare barracks, the Army vote is less significant than it used to be. Like so many constituencies in and around the capital, Kildare South has experienced a population surge over the past decade, with all the accompanying complaints over lack of facilities and inadequate infrastructure. The party or parties that can tap into this vein of discontent will do very well at the polls.
Can Fine Gael do it? Gillis is an impressive speaker with a strong personality but the last time he was an election candidate was in 1999 when he lost his seat in Europe. The late Fianna Fáil rally in this election probably means that neither Gillis nor Daly will be in the 30th Dail.
VERDICT: FF - 2; Labour - 1. (No change.)
