ANALYSIS:French ambitions for a quick re-run of the Lisbon referendum have steadily receded, writes Lara Marlowe
FRENCH PRESIDENT Nicolas Sarkozy has long used the term "road map" to describe what he expects of Taoiseach Brian Cowen at next week's Brussels summit. The Taoiseach used the word this week, it is believed for the first time.
There has been tension over whose job it was to draw up the "road map".
In Strasbourg on October 21st, Sarkozy said he and the president of the European Commission would "build a road map for December, to see what response we bring to the Irish question. It is my intention, before leaving the presidency of the council, to propose this road map and to indicate, in a consensual manner, the way out".
Over the past five months, French ambitions have steadily receded. Initially, Sarkozy hoped that Ireland would re-vote in the autumn, so the treaty might enter into force before the end of his EU presidency on December 31st. Then Paris urged Cowen to hold a second referendum in the early spring, so the mid-June European parliamentary elections could be held under Lisbon rules, rather than those of the Nice treaty, which prevails until or unless Lisbon is ratified.
When Sarkozy visited Cowen in Dublin on July 21st, the French leader attempted to convince the Taoiseach to hold a referendum on the day of the European elections in June. There was no point fighting not one but two more campaigns against Declan Ganley and Libertas, the French leader argued.
"Our calendar was ambitious," admitted a source close to Sarkozy. "Now we hope [the treaty] may enter into force before the end of 2009. The advantage of this solution would be that the new commission would be chosen according to Lisbon, not Nice."
So that is the carrot which Sarkozy has offered Cowen: the mandate of the present commission will expire on November 1st, 2009. Under Nice, the number of new commissioners must be fewer than the number of member countries.
Some French diplomats suggest it would be logical for Ireland to lose a commissioner. "But if the commission is formed under Lisbon, we could keep the same number of commissioners until 2014, 2019, or beyond," the source close to Sarkozy
explained.
Ireland would have to ratify Lisbon "in the autumn" for the commission to be formed under Lisbon rules. If needs be, the mandate of the current commission could be prolonged for a few weeks.
If Ireland holds a second referendum, French officials emphasise the need for a dynamic public relations campaign. "We believe there was a real disinformation campaign," said the source close to Sarkozy. "For example on neutrality: the treaty in no way threatens neutrality - otherwise the other neutral EU members would not have ratified it. Nor is there anything on abortion."
The French are aware of legal constraints on the Government campaigning.
"There should be a private-sector group, with energy and money comparable to Libertas, campaigning for a Yes vote," suggested a French diplomat with long experience in European affairs. "Ideally, it would be led by a woman."