The alternative coalitions are polling neck and neck, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi survey which shows a decline of five percentage points in the combined support for both Government parties since December. Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats are now just one point ahead of the Fine Gael-Labour alternative.
The poll is particularly bad news for the Progressive Democrats who are at just 1 per cent, the lowest rating for the party in an mrbi poll since its foundation in 1985. However, the satisfaction rating of the party leader, Michael McDowell, is up 6 per cent.
The smaller parties have made significant gains in the poll, with the Greens doubling their support to 8 per cent and Sinn Féin gaining ground after its ardfheis decision last Sunday to accept policing.
The adjusted figures for party support are: Fianna Fáil 37 per cent (down three percentage points); Fine Gael 26 per cent (down one point); Labour 11 per cent (no change); Sinn Féin 9 per cent (up two points); Green Party 8 per cent (up four points); the Progressive Democrats 1 per cent (down two points) and Independents/others 8 per cent (no change).
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies.
The core vote for the parties when the undecided voters are included is: Fianna Fáil 35 per cent (down three points); Fine Gael 19 per cent (down one point); Labour 8 per cent (no change); Sinn Féin 7 per cent (up two points); Green Party 6 per cent (up three points); PDs 1 per cent (down one point); Independents/others 6 per cent (down one point); undecided 18 per cent (up one point).
Satisfaction with the Government has dropped to 48 per cent (down four points) while satisfaction with Mr Ahern is down by three points to 56 per cent.
Satisfaction with Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny is running at 41 per cent (down two points); Pat Rabbitte is on 47 per cent (up one point); Michael McDowell is on 44 per cent (up six points); Trevor Sargent is at 40 per cent (no change) and Gerry Adams is on 50 per cent (up seven points).
The drop in Fianna Fáil support since the Budget and the publication of the National Development Plan is a surprise, and the party is back where it was exactly 12 months ago.
The drop in PD support is potentially even more damaging to the prospects of the Government retaining power in the election.
There is no obvious reason for the decline, particularly since Mr McDowell's satisfaction rating has risen by 12 per cent since he took over as party leader last September.
One possible explanation is that by associating himself so closely with Fianna Fáil, the Tánaiste may have alienated potential supporters from other political backgrounds.
Fine Gael and Labour will be buoyed by the poll, although they have not made any gains.
Fine Gael has actually dropped one point but the party has established itself in the 26-28 per cent range over the last four Irish Timespolls. The party has not been at this level in mrbi polls since the early 1990s. Labour remains at 11 per cent but the rating of party leader Pat Rabbitte has improved following the recent media controversy over his likely attitude to the formation of a government in a hung Dáil.
The Greens are the biggest winners in the poll, with party support doubling to 8 per cent. If it can achieve this share of the vote in an election it should be able to increase its number of Dáil seats from the current six. The party is particularly strong in Dublin, where it has moved ahead of Labour.
The increase in support for Sinn Féin and the big jump in satisfaction with Gerry Adams is a clear response to the special ardfheis last Sunday which decided overwhelmingly to recognise the new policing structures in Northern Ireland.
Independents and others have retained the same level of support as that achieved in the last poll and look like remaining a significant component of the Dáil arithmetic after the election.
