ANKARA AND THE KURDS: In a move clearly aimed to reassure US forces as they struggle towards Baghdad, Turkey's leading general said yesterday his troops would make no unilateral move into northern Iraq.
"Undertakings will be co-ordinated with the United States . . . to avoid any misunderstandings," Gen Hilmi Ozkok told a press conference in the south-eastern city of Diyarbakir, just days after US officials had angrily warned that Turkish troops deploying in Iraq could be the target of friendly fire.
About 2,000 Turkish soldiers have been stationed in northern Iraq since 1997, as part of Turkey's continuing fight against Turkish Kurdish rebels hidden in the mountains there.
However, while Gen Ozkok insisted long-standing Turkish plans to set up a 12-mile military buffer zone south of the border had been put on hold, he made it clear Turkey would consider extra deployment if existing forces were unable to cope with security concerns.
"An attack on those forces, a possible large refugee exodus, instability that may emerge due to fighting between local armed forces or an attack on the civilian population are our most important security concerns," he said.
It is not clear what lies behind the military's apparent change of heart, though it may be linked to Washington's announcement early yesterday that it was planning to offer Turkey $1 billion in cash grants.
However, some US analysts are unsure if Congress, angered by months of Turkish hesitation over military co-operation, will approve the grants.
If they do, Washington looks likely to propose converting the lump sum into loan guarantees worth $8.5 billion.
"It is a fraction of the $30 billion Turkey would have received if it had permitted full US deployment early in March, but better than nothing.
"What we're seeing here is a return to reason on both sides", says Ankara-based political commentator Mr Sedat Ergin.
"With the Iraqi advance slower than expected, US commanders cannot risk free agents in northern Iraq.
"And Turkey cannot risk alienating its oldest ally completely."
While US officials are adamant the new aid package is dependent on close Turkish co-operation with Washington, discussions between the two sides show no signs of ending.
Chief US negotiator Mr Zalmay Khalilzad left Ankara for northern Iraq yesterday, saying he would return later this week to address "difficult and complicated issues".
As Gen Ozkok made clear in his speech, Turkey's declared concerns are threefold.
It fears that war in Iraq could encourage an independence bid by Iraq's Kurds, reviving separatist demands among Turkey's 10 million Kurds.
It claims a possible Kurdish refugee influx could provide cover for an estimated 5000 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas to bring their separatist war back into Turkey.
And it insists Iraq's Turkish-speaking Turkmen population be acknowledged as one of the founding nations of post-Saddam Iraq.
With these issues raised to the level of "national security", critical discussion of them is limited.
But for Kurdish politician Mr Dicle Anter, the Turkish establishment's fear of the PKK is indicative of its unique brew of belligerence and sense of insecurity.
"Turkey has the second largest army in NATO," he says.
"To argue that at most 5,000 lightly-armed guerrillas isolated 100 miles south of Turkey's border are a danger to the state is simply bizarre."
Other analysts point out the link between Ankara's deep suspicions of Iraqi Kurdish intentions, and the slowness with which it is pushing through the democratic and economic changes demanded by its own Kurdish minority.
"The Turkish establishment says it has no Kurdish problem," says columnist for independent daily Yeni Safak, Mr Ali Bayramoglu. "But it does. And without taking steps to solve it, it seems willing to export this lack of decisiveness across the border."
"Nobody gave a second thought to the Turkmen a year ago", he added.
"Supporting some of their parties now could trigger long-term Turkish engagement in Iraq.
"That would be an economic and political disaster for Turkey."