German retail sales fell by 2.5 percent in November from the previous month, far more than expected, surprising economists after retail associations had delivered positive reports of pre-Christmas trading.
Federal Statistics Office data released today showed that in real terms, they edged 0.1 percent higher than in November 2003, which had one fewer shopping day.
The consensus forecast of 13 analysts polled by Reuters was for retail sales to fall by 0.2 percent from October and advance by 1.0 percent year-on-year
"The figures are bad, there's no other way of looking at them. October had given us a positive surprise and this is clearly a negative one," said Ralph Solveen of Commerzbank.
"It dampens hope of a positive development in private consumption."
According to the data, based on figures from six German states accounting for 81 percent of the total goods sold, retail sales fell 2.7 percent in nominal terms on the month and rose 0.2 percent from November 2003, the Office said.
Sales in the first 11 months of the year fell 1.5 percent in real terms.
Germany's HDE retail association reported booming business at Christmas and has said turnover for the final two months of 2004 eclipsed revenues from November-December 2003 by about 1 billion euros.
However the country's two retail associations both estimate sales fell by around 1.0 percent in 2004, the third successive annual decline, and they remain cautious on the chances for improvement during 2005.
Most economists agree tax cuts which come into effect this month will do little to boost household incomes.