The European Parliament elections have usually brought happy tidings for the Green Party, often in the face of pessimistic predictions.
The forecast is no less gloomy on this occasion, but there can be little doubt that the party genuinely has a battle on its hands.
On the basis of the first Irish Times/tns mrbi poll of the campaign, Ms Patricia McKenna should be in the hunt for the last of four seats in Dublin.
However, she urgently needs more first preferences if she is to avoid a third-count elimination, which could give Fianna Fáil two of the capital's four seats.
Ms McKenna - who, perhaps, is suffering from being seen too often complaining - will argue that she has been right, most notably in her opposition to the Iraqi war last year.
The current lowly poll rating for such an issues-driven politician is particularly galling, she says, given the profile achieved by Fianna Fáil's Royston Brady.
"In some ways, it is a bit frightening to think that people have a choice between someone who is active and working hard and Royston Brady," she said cuttingly yesterday.
"Having said that, it comes down again to the American approach to politics, with media stunts every five minutes and a lot of money being put into the campaign.
"But at the end of the day what the electorate want are people who are going to represent their interests in Europe and work hard for their interests and work hard to get Irish interests pushed ahead." While Ms McKenna is still in the hunt, the party's deputy leader, Carlow-based Ms Mary White, faces an immense struggle to win in the East constituency.
She is carrying the party standard in place of outgoing MEP, Ms Nuala Ahern, who quietly built a highly respected political base.
Ms White is suffering from her proximity to Fianna Fáil's Mr Liam Aylward, whose electoral machine is hoovering up votes in time-honoured fashion.
In addition, she may also be affected by the presence of two other strong, opinionated women, Fine Gael's Avril Doyle and Máiréad McGuinness.
While defeat in the Euros would be a major blow to a party that prides itself on its European credentials, the local polls offer the chance of spreading the Greens' word.
Opinion polls offer little guide. In 1999, the Greens won 2.5 per cent of the first-preference vote, though they obviously did not contest every ward. Today, pollsters put them at 4 per cent.
This time around, they are not contesting every ward either but they are contesting more of them, with 160 candidates running in towns, cities and counties.
Inevitably, much of the sexier Greens' environmental clothes have been stolen by other parties, leaving them with the more difficult-to-sell messages.
However, oil stands at $40 a barrel. Petrol costs are rising dramatically. Waste charges are becoming a significant item in household spending. Younger voters are susceptible to the Greens' message - if the party can encourage them to vote.
