It might seem like stating the obvious, but one of the reasons Ireland is struggling to contain yet another wave of Covid-19 is because it has too many cases.
All countries have had their ups and downs in fighting this pandemic, but many of our closest neighbours have managed better this year in suppressing the disease to low levels.
Germany, for instance, has an incidence that is seven times lower than Ireland's, according to European Centre for Disease Control data – or about three times lower, according to more up-to-date figures from the National Public Health Emergency Team.
One has to go back to last summer for a time when Ireland successfully managed to suppress, and nearly eliminate, the strain of Covid then circulating.
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Last autumn, however, a failure to get case numbers low enough before restrictions were eased in December created the platform for the disastrous surge that happened around Christmas.
Restriction easing
This time, it is the same story; case numbers never really dropped below about 300 per day as restrictions were eased. This has again created the platform for the current wave, in which Ireland has the highest incidence in Europe aside from Cyprus and the UK.
At least on this occasion though, widespread vaccination is throttling the rate at which cases here turn into serious illness, ICU admission and death. Whereas our case numbers are running at more than twice the EU average, our death rate so far is about two-thirds of the average. This is also a reflection of the high standards of care available to patients in Irish hospitals.
So why are our rates so high? Is it because of failings in our test-and-trace system, which have attracted criticism in the past? Or is it because we’re worse at sticking to the rules, or at ensuring they are enforced?
The UK might have the highest figures in Europe at present, but at least it also had a lighter lockdown and an earlier lifting of restrictions than us. We seem to have little to show for our limits on mass events or funerals.
Nphet officials point to Ireland’s younger population, bigger family sizes and lower number of one-person households as factors behind our higher figures.
Lack of ‘firebreaks’
At present, the disease is spreading mostly among younger, unvaccinated people, and Ireland has more of these than any other EU country apart from Cyprus. The average age in Germany is 46; in Ireland it is 38.
Nphet official Prof Philip Nolan also points to our “highly mobile” and multinational workforce as a potential factor. Up to 17 per cent of the workforce wasn’t born in Ireland and international travel is more significant than in other countries.
Nolan also argues that we have a high and uniformly distributed population density with no "natural firebreaks". This means less protection against the spread of an outbreak than might exist in a country such as France, where large areas are sparsely populated.
The lack of a firebreak is most apparent at the Border; the three counties in the Republic with the highest virus rates are all along the Border.
On the other side of the argument, Ireland’s peripheral location, the collapse of international travel and high social buy-in for restrictions might have been expected to drive down our figures more than actually occurred.
The danger now is that we face into yet another uncertain period, with schools reopening and winter approaching, from another very high base. Vaccination may see us through any challenges, but this is not a given.