Inspectors are expected to verify that IRA weapons remain unused

No clear picture has emerged about what amount or type of weapons have been inspected by Mr Marti Ahtisaari and Mr Cyril Ramaphosa…

No clear picture has emerged about what amount or type of weapons have been inspected by Mr Marti Ahtisaari and Mr Cyril Ramaphosa although both the British and Irish governments are satisfied a considerable number of IRA weapons have been shown to the two independent inspectors.

It is expected that by later today or tomorrow, the two inspectors will be able to announce they have reinspected arms dumps which they visited last May. It was also confidently expected last night that the two inspectors will verify the weapons have remained unused.

This information has not surprised senior security sources, who report the IRA has run down its main "military" operation and has stopped training with large weapons such as landmines, mortars and other infantry weapons like medium and heavy machine-guns.

The scale of the IRA's arsenal is not known. However, in 1987 the Garda interrogated the skipper of the ships which brought weapons to the IRA from Col Gadafy over the previous three years. Altogether there were maybe 400 tons of weapons, enough to arm a military battalion of around 600 troops.

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The Libyan shipments included around 1,000 AK47 assault rifles, medium machineguns, some heavier .5 antiaircraft guns, hundreds of RPG7 rocket launchers and at least eight SAM (surface to air) missiles. There were also six tons of Semtex plastic explosive, possibly half of which was used before the first IRA ceasefire of August 1994.

This was the largest single shipment of weapons received by the IRA but there were many others before and several since, according to well-placed sources.

The latest shipment came from the US between 1998 and July 1999 when the arms smuggling was uncovered and guns went astray en route to safe houses in Galway and Meath.

It emerged the IRA had been replacing its older weapons, including the Libyan arms, with new guns suited to its more recent roles. The guns sent from the US, in an operation overseen by a leading IRA figure who is also in Sinn Fein, included handguns of all calibres, sub-machineguns and silenced weapons.

These type of weapons have been used in the killing of figures accused of drug dealing or other activities.

Most recently, it is suspected the IRA in the North used new guns to shoot dead the Co Tyrone drug dealer, Patrick Quinn (32), at Magherafelt, Co Derry, on September 31st.

They also shot dead Joseph O'Connor (26) near his home in west Belfast on October 13th. O'Connor was a member of the rival "Real IRA" and had been in dispute with the local IRA. In both instances the IRA used guns with no ballistic "traces" - in other words, guns which had never been used in shootings here.

So long as there is a perceived threat to its members in working-class nationalist areas, it is expected the IRA will continue to retaliate with punishment shootings and occasional assassinations.

According to security sources, the IRA has probably never given up the process of seeking new sources for weapons and has agents working in various parts of the world where guns can be bought. However, the same sources insist there is no sign of the IRA breaking its ceasefire and returning to outright conflict.