WHILE WEDNESDAY’S reported attempt on the life Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was promptly dismissed by Tehran as a firecracker thrown by a supporter, experts on Iran take the view that his removal would make little difference in the country’s policies.
Even if he were not on the scene, Iran would not retreat from its longstanding confrontation with the West and would continue to pursue its nuclear programme. The government has little incentive to drop or adapt these policies.
Although many Iranians would like Tehran to cultivate better relations with the West, most support the country’s nuclear research, the main cause of tension between Iran and the West.
Tehran would also carry on with its so far largely effective crackdown on the opposition “Green Movement’s” protests against Mr Ahmadinejad’s re-election last year, claiming fraud and vote rigging.
Prof Juan Cole of the University of Michigan points out that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “is the real centre of power. He is commander in chief of the [armed] forces and head of intelligence . . .
“Ahmadinejad could not even appoint a minor vice-president without Khamenei’s approval.”
In Dr Cole’s view, Khamenei would arrange for Mr Ahmadinejad to be “succeeded by some other marginal personality”.
However, Dr Cole suggests that the ayatollah might choose a successor less “colourful in a bad way” in order to project a more favourable image of Iran.
Some analysts argue that the hardline Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) would have to be consulted in the choice of a successor.
The IRCG has expanded its financial and commercial holdings and strengthened its political position while Mr Ahmadinejad has benefited from its rise.
Confident of the backing of the ayatollah and the IRGC, he recently imposed taxes and tariffs on the powerful merchant class, the bazaaris(with whom he has fallen out) who bankrolled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's revolt against the shah and backed the takeover of the state by the clerics and their allies. In response to the tax hikes, the bazaaris went on strike. The Iranian ruling establishment and administration is filled with people who, like Mr Ahmadinejad, matured since the 1979 revolution.
They not only share his outlook and ideas but also have a stake in the system, making it unlikely that it will be altered if he is removed.
While many Iranians may prefer a less tightly controlled system, they, like the Green Movement, could find it difficult to effect change.
