Is that another political roadblock in Northern Ireland?
Yes, yet another. We have had three weeks of talks since the Westminster election earlier this month. They are designed to get the Northern Executive and Assembly back up and running after its collapse at the start of the year. It was particularly intensive this week, with the new Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney introduced to the stubborn complexities of Stormont negotiations. He was here from Monday to Friday. With Northern Secretary James Brokenshire, he was trying to persuade the parties to re-establish Stormont before Thursday June 29th’s 4 pm deadline.
But they like bursting deadlines in Northern Ireland?
Indeed they do. Brokenshire admitted defeat on Thursday afternoon by giving the parties an extension until Monday. That’s the fourth deadline breached since the late Martin McGuinness triggered the collapse of Stormont by standing down in January as Deputy First Minister over the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme calamity.
What are the burning issues of this latest Stormont impasse?
Well obviously RHI literally is a burning issue. That eco-friendly grant scheme was so friendly that for every £1 spent by wood pellet boiler users they got £1.60 back – hence the “cash for ash” description. But RHI is being addressed through an independent public inquiry that could take a year or more to complete. Because it was introduced under Arlene Foster’s watch, Sinn Féin had required that she stand down as First Minister pending the outcome of the inquiry – that is, if the Executive is ever restored. This week however Sinn Féin appeared to be softening its position.
And those issues are?
There is a range of them. The difficult ones are dealing with the past, same-sex marriage and the Irish language.
Are the negotiators making any progress?
The issue of the past is proposed to be put out for public consultation based on the Christmas 2014 Stormont House Agreement. It proposed a new unit to investigate Troubles killings, a truth recovery body, an oral archive of the conflict and mechanisms to promote reconciliation.
And on same-sex marriage?
There is an attempt to finesse this issue by changing the Assembly petition of concern. This is a vetoing mechanism where any 30 of the Assembly’s 90 members could join together to block particular bills. There are talks’ proposals to limit use of the petition of concern to specific matters such as constitutional and security issues.
And on the Irish language?
This has proved the most contentious matter. Sinn Fein and the SDLP want a stand-alone Irish language act. The DUP favours a broader cultural act that also would include Ulster Scots. Nationalists however are holding to their demand. They contend that after Arlene Foster’s disparaging “don’t feed the crocodiles” comments that the issue is about an “Irish respect act as much as an Irish language act”. Sorting Irish is seen as the key to unlocking all the other problems.
What happens if there is no deal?
That’s James Brokenshire’s call. He could trigger fresh Assembly elections; he could order a return to direct rule from Westminster by British Ministers; he could give the parties until the early autumn to resolve outstanding matters – although the latter option probably would be viewed as bringing politics to the level of farce. The DUP with its ten MPs propping up the Tory government has extra influence on what course of action Mr Brokenshire might take.
Will Monday’s deadline be burst?
Probably. But don’t despair yet. These are not monumental issues. It would be pathetic if politicians of the experience of Gerry Adams and Arlene Foster can’t get the Northern Executive and Assembly reinstated. It could happen before next week is out.