The war in Ukraine has caused great distress to people in Ireland, tempting politicians and the public to reassess our neutrality. This week's Irish Times/Ipsos poll confirms our national commitment to the principle of neutrality despite the weight of responsibility we feel to help the people of Ukraine in every way we can.
On the central question of whether the Irish public supports our policy of military neutrality, 66 per cent are in favour of the current model, 24 per cent would like to see it change, and 11 per cent express no opinion either way.
Support for the current model extends across the political spectrum. The least supportive of the current position – Green Party (59 per cent) and Fine Gael (61 per cent) voters – are still overwhelmingly in favour of no change.
Most wedded to our current model are Labour (71 per cent), Sinn Féin (67 per cent) and Fianna Fail (66 per cent) voters.
Typically, important political questions reveal significant differences of opinion across the various demographic groupings, but not the question of neutrality.
Men (66 per cent) and women (65 per cent), young (18-34 year olds – 69 per cent) and old (65+ years – 67 per cent), urbanites (66 per cent) and rural dwellers (66 per cent), working (68 per cent) and middle-classes (64 per cent) all support Irish neutrality.
The backing of our current stance by all age cohorts is an important finding. A widely-observed phenomenon in polling is generational shift, usually where younger voters who hold minority, liberal views become older voters and a liberal majority emerges. With young Irish voters firmly behind the current policy it is unlikely even the passage of time will have much of an impact on public opinion towards neutrality.
We have evidence to show opinion on neutrality is not susceptible to generational shift. We know our stance on neutrality has endured over decades. In 1996, the Irish Times and Ipsos polled public opinion on this exact question. The poll showed 69 per cent in favour of maintaining our policy on neutrality, with 20 per cent in favour of change.
We also know, in 1996, young and old alike were equally enthusiastic about our neutrality, so it comes as no surprise that the passage of time has not changed the national consensus.
If a respondent on our latest poll indicated they would like to see a change of policy, they were subsequently asked if Ireland should join Nato and/or a Common European Defence Union. On balance, those seeking a change would support Ireland joining Nato (63 per cent in favour, 29 per cent against) or joining a Common European Defence Union (78 per cent in favour, 14 per cent against).
Military role
Naturally the invasion of Ukraine has given us all pause for thought. Should we play a greater military role? Should we send military aid? On these questions the balance of opinion leans firms in favour of no military involvement.
Just 33 per cent agree that they would “like to see Ireland play a greater military role to defend the EU”, while 54 per cent disagree. Similarly, 35 per cent agree “Ireland should send military aid to Ukraine, even if it affects our neutrality”, with 55 per cent disagreeing.
Underlying the reluctance to get involved in the conflict is a fear that Ireland could be dragged into a war, a fear shared by 65 per cent of those polled, with 29 per cent willing to take this risk.
Neutrality is a core element of our national identity, reflected in our commitment to the concept across all groupings in society and across time. The merits of neutrality can be argued, but there can be little debate about how the public feel about the choice we have made.