Top Ministers stay calm to make sure they cannot be accused of gloating

Some Fine Gael TDs believe Varadkar has secured a huge political win and are checking if an election can be held before Christmas

The question in Leinster House will soon turn to what Varadkar does with the political capital the Brexit deal gives him: push Fianna Fáil to extend the confidence and supply deal or call an election in the new year?
The question in Leinster House will soon turn to what Varadkar does with the political capital the Brexit deal gives him: push Fianna Fáil to extend the confidence and supply deal or call an election in the new year?

As the top of the Government strove on Wednesday to project an impression of calm and control, a giddiness fizzed below decks in Leinster House.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, Tánaiste Simon Coveney and other senior figures attempted to make a virtue of seeming content with the emerging shape of the Brexit withdrawal agreement without leaving themselves open to accusations of gloating.

Lessons, it seems, were learned from last December when initial leaks of the EU-UK protocol which initially contained the backstop – the insurance policy to prevent a hard border if future trade talks between Britain and the European bloc fail – enraged Theresa May’s confidence and supply partners in the DUP.

When Ministers gathered for an early morning Cabinet meeting to discuss the withdrawal agreement, they left their phones outside the door. No papers or documents were circulated as Coveney gave an oral briefing on the shape of the deal.

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Some sources suggested the Tánaiste’s presentation did not contain much more detail than what had already appeared in the media.

The discipline shown in keeping Wednesday’s Cabinet deliberations private was remarkable. Usually what is discussed at Cabinet is common currency in Leinster House within hours of a meeting concluding. Not so on Wednesday.

“This is just too big,” said one Minister. Nobody wanted a leak from Dublin to cause trouble in London.

Varadkar called Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, and the pair are understood to have discussed the constraints on what the Taoiseach could tell the Dáil at Leaders' Questions at noon.

Martin was not present for the session, and his deputy Dara Calleary questioned Varadkar. Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald was also absent, with Pearse Doherty taking questions in her stead.

‘Good as it gets’

All knew what was at stake, with the questions blunted by the knowledge that the British cabinet was to meet later on Wednesday afternoon.

Some Fine Gael TDs, believing their leader had secured a huge political win, checked the calendar to see if a general election could be held before Christmas.

“There is a strong body of opinion now in Fine Gael that this is as good as it gets,” said one Minister. “We are ready.”

The chances of an election in the coming weeks are extremely remote, however. The prospect of a pre-Christmas election caused public anger last year, and Government Buildings was quick to dispel any thoughts of Varadkar going to the country soon.

Even so, members of the Fine Gael parliamentary party joked about an election as they gathered for their weekly meeting. Their buoyant mood was unmistakable, a contrast to the quiet in Fianna Fáil.

One Fianna Fáil TD remarked that Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy – one of Varadkar's key lieutenants – was "more visible around the place than he has been for a while".

Even some in Government Buildings allowed themselves enjoy the anticipation as it built throughout the day. "It's like waiting for Christmas morning and Santa to come," said one figure. "I hope he doesn't bring a bag of coal."

Weather it

Fianna Fáilers are ready for Varadkar to get an opinion poll bounce from the Brexit withdrawal deal, but believe they can weather it.

One frontbencher said Fine Gael could reach the high 30s in a similar fashion to how the party jumped to 36 per cent after the backstop was initially agreed last December.

“They’ll get a big bounce off it,” the TD said. “It’s a national win, and people like national wins.”

The question in Leinster House will soon turn to what Varadkar does with the political capital the Brexit deal gives him: push Fianna Fáil to extend the confidence and supply deal or call an election in the new year?