A pre-emptive strike is a dangerous exercise. To be successful, the capacity of your opponents to mount an effective response must be seriously damaged. Enda Kenny took a risk this week when, rather than wait for critics to raise the question of leadership, he announced he would not walk away from his mandate as Taoiseach.
That mandate could, he hinted, run until 2018. Members were flabbergasted. They had expected plans for an early departure, but they were given a “no change at the top” message. It may not work. The late Charlie Haughey once suggested he might stay on as taoiseach into his 80s. He was gone within months.
Displaying his rediscovered “mojo” through the use of a divide-and-conquer strategy, Mr Kenny spoke of assessing the performance of ministers and reshuffling his Cabinet in 2017. As a warning to ambitious colleagues, however, it had passed its sell-by date. A similar exercise was promised – and forgotten – during the last government.
The Taoiseach's determination to fulfil a perceived Dáil mandate does, however, challenge his would-be successors. It draws attention to the precarious nature of the minority Government: its reliance on volatile Independent ministers and the forbearance of Fianna Fáil. A challenge to his leadership could bring the whole edifice tumbling down. The situation, for Fine Gael politicians, is the stuff of nightmares.
A record number of Fine Gael ministers and minister of state serve in this Government and, on the basis of current party support, most have personal reasons to “keep tight hold of nurse”. An early election could cost them dearly. Fianna Fáil has been refashioned as the leading political party under Micheál Martin and can now directly influence Government policy.
In line with this burgeoning support, the party’s commitment to a “confidence and supply” arrangement with Fine Gael looks increasingly threadbare. It may be in Mr Martin’s interests to maintain this position of benign oversight but that could change.
Relations involving Independent ministers within the minority Government are less than stable, even if they lack the pyrotechnics generated by John Halligan regarding medical facilities in Waterford. Issues involving Brexit, Nama, Apple, strikes, the Budget and abortion are likely to keep debate at a rolling boil in Leinster House during the coming Dáil session.
There may be little time to contemplate or to organise a leadership heave. Should support for Fine Gael fall sharply in an opinion poll, however, those unhappy backbenchers who have been agitating for the election of a new leader will not be gainsaid. Opinion polls have sparked rebellion in the past. For now, however, Mr Kenny can lead on.